人口研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 26-39.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀县域人口城镇化时空格局及驱动力研究

张耀军1柴多多2   

  1. 张耀军1中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;柴多多2中国银行总行管理培训生

  • 出版日期:2017-09-29 发布日期:2018-01-04
  • 作者简介:张耀军,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授; 柴多多, 中国银行总行管理培训生。
  • 基金资助:
    本文是国家自然科学基金项目主体功能区规划背景下人口有序流动及合理分布研究项目批准号和贫困地区人口动态变化对扶贫开发的影响与应对研究(项目批号:71541032)的阶段性成果;本文得到教育部规划基金项目:京津冀城市圈人口有序转移与合理分布政策研究项目批准号(71441005)和中央在京高校重大成果转化项目“京津冀协同一体化发展研究的资助。

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Urbanization at County Level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megacity Region

Zhang Yaojun1Chai Duoduo2   

  1. Zhang Yaojun1  Center for Population and Development Studies, RenmingUniversity of China. Chai Duoduo 2  Head Office of Bank of China

  • Online:2017-09-29 Published:2018-01-04
  • About author:Zhang Yaojun is Professor, Center for Population and Development Studies, Renming University of China;Chai Duoduo is Management Trainee,Head Office of Bank of China.

摘要: 文章基于 2000 年和2010年中国人口普查的分县数据采用方法分析京津冀地区县域城镇化率的空间格局分布及变动情况提出城镇化率变动分城乡贡献度指标并就京津冀地区进行研究采取空间误差模型与的方法分别考察该地区城镇化全局和局部的驱动力状况结果表明京津冀地区的县域城镇化率表现出显著的空间集聚并且有逐渐加强的趋势城镇化率提高过程呈现收敛模式高城镇化率地区对于周边城镇化率过低的地区具有带动作用对于城镇化率提高的地区其增量中乡村贡献度的高值分布与城镇化程度低的一些地区重合经济水平产业结构医教水平和地形因素对京津冀地区城镇化影响显著。

关键词: 人口城镇化 , 时空格局, 驱动力京津冀, 县域

Abstract: Based on the 2000 and 2010 census data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity regionthis paper uses the ESDA method to analyze the spatial pattern of urbanization rates as well as its changes at county level By applying Spatial Error Model and GWR method both global and local driving forces of urbanization are investigated in this region The main results are as follows The urbanization rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region at county level manifests a significant pattern of spatial aggregation which is gradually strengthened The increase of urbanization rate shows a pattern of convergence and areas where the urbanization rate is high have positive impact on the nearby areas where the urbanization rate is low For areas where the urbanization rate is increased the distribution of high value of rural contribution share is similar to that of areas which are in low urbanization rate Economic level industrial structure medical and education level and terrain condition have significant effects on the urbanization level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region Each driving force has a unique distribution of incidence pattern for different areas.

Keywords: Population Urbanization , Spatial-Temporal Pattern , Driving Forces , Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Mega-city, County Level