中国人口老龄化时空演化特征的比较分析——基于固定年龄与动态年龄指标的测算

人口研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 51-64.

中国人口老龄化时空演化特征的比较分析——基于固定年龄与动态年龄指标的测算

吴连霞¹，吴开亚²

吴连霞,复旦大学人口与发展政策研究中心博士后;吴开亚(通讯作者),复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院、人口与发展政策研究中心教授。上海:200433

出版日期:2018-05-29 发布日期:2018-06-11
作者简介:吴连霞,复旦大学人口与发展政策研究中心博士后;吴开亚(通讯作者),复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院、人口与发展政策研究中心教授。上海:200433
基金资助:
本研究受到国家自然科学基金重大项目“整体性治理— — —应对老龄社会的公共政策和公共管理体系重构研究”(71490735),上海市哲学社会科学规划青年项目“长江经济带人口老龄化空间格局演化、空间溢出效应及其与上海的空间联动研究”(2017ESH001)和中国博士后科学基金项目“中国人口老龄化时空格局演化及空间溢出效应研究”(2017M621334)的资助。感谢彭希哲教授、张震副教授及审稿专家对本文的建议和帮助。

Comparative Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Population Ageing in China:Measurement based on Fixed Age and Dynamic Age Indexes

Wu Lianxia¹ and Wu Kaiya²

Wu Lianxia is Post-doctoral Fellow, Center for Population and Development Policy Research,Fudan University;Wu Kaiya (Corresponding author) is Professor,Center for Population and Development Policy Research,School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Professor.
Email:wuky@ fudan. edu. cn.

Online:2018-05-29 Published:2018-06-11
About author:Wu Lianxia is Post-doctoral Fellow, Center for Population and Development Policy Research,Fudan University;Wu Kaiya (Corresponding author) is Professor,Center for Population and Development Policy Research,School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Professor. Email:wuky@ fudan. edu. cn.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 文章采用剩余预期寿命、实际老龄依赖比等动态年龄指标,通过生命表测度老年人口与老龄化,运用空间聚类分析方法,分析 1990 ~ 2010 年中国人口老龄化时空演变特征,并与采用固定年龄方法测算的老龄化结果比较。研究表明,动态年龄测算的老龄化程度与老年人口抚养比均趋于下降,空间格局经历北高南低—东高西低—以重庆市等为中心圈层模式的转变过程;而固定年龄度量的老龄化程度与老年人口抚养比则趋于上升,空间格局主要呈东西分异。相比而言,动态年龄指标测度的老龄化更符合人口与社会发展的客观实际,反映老龄化的本质特征,揭示老龄化水平的影响因素及区域差异特征,进而有利于采取更有针对性、差异化的策略积极应对老龄化。

关键词: 老龄化, 时空演化, 剩余预期寿命, 实际老龄依赖比, 空间聚类分析

Abstract: Using dynamic age indexes (remaining life expectancy and real elderly dependency ratio) which measure the rate of population ageing through life table,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolutional characteristics of population ageing in China from 1990 to 2010 with spatial analysis method. The results suggest that the degree of ageing and old-age dependency ratio which measured by fixed age indexes tend to increase,while those measured by dynamic age indexes tend to decrease.The spatial pattern of ageing by fixed age index is mainly differentiated between the east and the west. The ageing pattern by the dynamic age index has experienced the transformation from “north high and south low” to “east high and west low” and then to “the circle pattern centered on Chongqing”. The spatial-temporal evolution patterns of ageing based on dynamic age indexes are more likely to reflect the essential characteristics of China??s population ageing and reveal the internal mechanisms of population and social development. Better understanding the influencing factors and the regional differences of ageing patterns enables a more focused differentiation strategies to promote the active response to the
challenges of population ageing.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Spatiotemporal Evolution, Remaining Life Expectancy, Real Elderly Dependency Ratio, Spatial Clustering Analysis

吴连霞，吴开亚. 中国人口老龄化时空演化特征的比较分析——基于固定年龄与动态年龄指标的测算[J]. 人口研究, 2018, 42(3): 51-64.

Wu Lianxia and Wu Kaiya. Comparative Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Population Ageing in China:Measurement based on Fixed Age and Dynamic Age Indexes[J]. Population Research, 2018, 42(3): 51-64.