关键词: 人口老龄化, 新结构经济学, 产业外移, 就地转型升级, 机器换人

Abstract: China has the largest population and the largest scale of manufacturing. Population ageing influences Chinas development from various aspects. The transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry will evolve with the rapid ageing process. Drawing on the new structural economics, this paper suggests that population ageing leads to a labor endowment change. Affected by the ageing labor structure and the diversified employment demands, the traditional comparative advantage gradually weakens. Therefore, the manufacturing industry is expected to move outward. However, the largescale industrial relocation at this stage is not conducive to maintaining the integrity of the industrial chain or keeping the employment rate in a country with a large population, especially for the older migrant workers. Instead of the industrial relocating that the developed countries or regions had adopted, the local industrial transformation and upgrading is more suitable for China. This could be learned through the practical experience of Dongguans manufacturing.

Keywords: Population Ageing, New Structural Economics, Industrial Relocation, Local Transformation and Upgrading, Machine Replacement