关键词: 人口负增长, 流动人口规模与结构, 结构效应, 规模效应, 强度效应

Abstract: Under the background of negative population growth, whether the scale of China's floating population will continue to grow and how its structure will change in the future are related to the construction goals of relevant social systems. Based on the data of the fifth, sixth, and seventh national population censuses, age structure standardization and decomposition methods are used to analyze the relative role of structure effect, scale effect, and intensity effect in the change of China's floating population in the past 20 years, and population projections are used to examine the future trend of the floating population. Research has found that the increase in the size of China's floating population in the past 20 years is mainly due to scale and intensity effects. Among them, the increase in the size of the urban floating population is mainly due to scale effects, while the increase in the rural floating population is mainly due to intensity effects; The structure effect has always had a negative impact, with the negative effect in the last 10 years being greater than that in the first 10 years. This negative structure effect shows similar behavior among different types of floating populations. Assuming the age-specific migration rate remains unchanged, the size of China's floating population will continue to decline in the future, and its age and urban-rural structure will undergo significant changes. The structure effect can be regarded as an intrinsic factor of natural growth, and the study of China's floating population must be situated within the context of negative population growth and population ageing.

Keywords: Population Negative Growth, Scale and structure of Floating Population, Structure Effect, Scale Effect, Intensity Effect