关键词: 人口预测, 总和生育率, 学龄人口, 人口老龄化, 城乡人口

Abstract: China is currently undergoing a profound transformation in its demographic development, characterized by very low fertility rate,rapid ageing, and negative population growth. These demographic shifts have significantly reshaped the interaction between population and socioeconomic systems in the country. In this context, forecasting future population trends constitutes a critical prerequisite for understanding future population dynamics and addressing its impacts on socioeconomic development. Existing research on China's future population trends has predominantly focused on national-level analyses, with little attention paid to regional disparities between urban and rural areas. Using the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this study employs the Cohort Component Method to simulate population trends both at the national and urban-rural levels from 2025 to 2100.

To capture the range of possible future population trajectories under varying fertility regimes, three scenarios are established. In the low scenario, fertility would continue to drop to extremely low level at 0.75 by 2035, while fertility would slowly rise to higher levels at 1.3 and 1.6 respectively by 2050 in the context of varying degrees of fertility policy incentives under medium and high scenarios. Results indicate that China's population will continue to shrink throughout the 21st century, declining to 1.18-1.28 billion by 2050, falling below 1 billion between 2063 and 2078, and further decreasing to 0.45-0.80 billion by 2100. The number of annual births in China is expected to follow a downward trajectory throughout the 21st century. Although a recovery in women's fertility rate may drive a fluctuating rebound in birth numbers, the long-term downward trend is unlikely to be altered due to the substantial challenges and limited potential for increasing fertility rate, as well as the ongoing reduction in the number of women of childbearing age. Moreover, fluctuations in the births will affect the size of school-age population through cohort transmission. Projections suggest that China's school-age population will experience a sharp reduction over the next 15 years, with substantial implications for the allocation of educational resources. Additionally, while the size and share of the working-age population aged 15-64 will fluctuate slightly, both are expected to trend downward during this century. Meanwhile, China will witness an acceleration in its population ageing. The proportion of elderly population aged 65 and above is projected to exceed 30% in the mid-to-late 2040s. By then, the size of elderly population will exceed 380 million, making China the country with the largest elderly population in the world.

The findings also highlight an increasing divergence between urban and rural population. The urban population is expected to continue growing over the next decade, remaining above 940 million until 2050, while the rural population will maintain a sustained shrinking trend throughout the century. Both urban and rural areas will experience a notable decline in the child population aged 0-14 within the next five years, with a reduction of approximately one-fifth in urban areas and around two-fifths in rural areas. The ageing process in rural areas is ahead of that in urban areas, although the urban elderly population will have a longer growth period and a higher peak value.

Keywords: Population Projection, Total Fertility Rate, School-Age Population, Population Ageing, Urban-Rural Population