关键词: 初婚推迟, “事件—次序—时间”分析框架, 生命历程理论

Abstract: The postponement of first marriage has become a salient demographic change in China. However, existing explanations remain divided and often conceptualize age at first marriage as a single outcome indicator, with insufficient attention to the life course processes underlying its formation. This study aims to clarify the mechanisms of delayed first marriage in China by distinguishing the differential effects of changes in life course sequencing and timing shifts on age at first marriage, while examining how individual endowments and family background shape marriage transitions.

Drawing on life course theory, the study proposes an integrated “event-sequence-time” analytical framework capturing both the processual and outcome dimensions of first marriage. Within this framework, two distinct mechanisms of marriage postponement are identified. The first is a sequence effect, whereby the standardized life course is altered and marriage is no longer treated as a necessary life event, reflecting a process of de-institutionalization in which marriage is actively postponed or forgone. The second is a timing effect, whereby the standardized sequence remains largely intact, but delays in preceding events or the lengthening of transition periods lead to a higher age at first marriage.

The analysis draws on pooled cross-sectional data from five waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2005, 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2021). The study examines the sequencing and timing of three key early-life events, namely graduation, entry into first job, and first marriage, and their variation across cohorts. Descriptive statistics based on the proposed framework are first used to identify dominant life course patterns. Binary logistic regression models then estimate how individual endowments and family background influence adherence to a standardized life course sequence. To isolate the timing effect and reduce confounding from prolonged schooling, accelerated failure time (AFT) models are used to examine the effects of individual endowments and family background on the transition duration from graduation to first marriage.

The findings show that more than three-quarters of respondents follow a standardized sequence of “graduation-first job-first marriage.” Across cohorts, the average ages at graduation, first job entry, and first marriage have all increased.Meanwhile, the transition time from graduation to first marriage has shortened across cohorts. Individuals with higher endowments are more likely to deviate from the standardized sequence and experience faster transitions into first marriage, whereas those from more advantaged family backgrounds are more likely to adhere to standardized sequences and have longer transition times. The sequence effect operates mainly among people with high individual endowments, while the timing effect is widespread across social groups. Overall, the postponement of first marriage in China mainly reflects timing effects rather than structural changes in the sequencing of life course events.

By integrating process and outcome dimensions, this study advances the understanding of marriage timing as a life course transition shaped by both event sequencing and timing dynamics. The findings suggest that policies to encourage age-appropriate marriage and childbearing in China need to consider the structured linkage between marriage, education, and employment, rather than focusing solely on marital or fertility-related interventions.

Keywords: Marriage Delay, “Event-Sequence-Time” Analytical Framework, Life Course Theory