Abstract: In the past,almost all the accuracy evaluations of China’s population census data represented a high quality and there was no specific age mantissa orientation.However,the survival-rate analysis of the two censuses shows the existence of systematic errors of demographic data and the age mantissa orientation.In this paper,the author presents a new method to test the accuracy of the population age data,and uses this method to analyze China’s census data to find out that the age mantissa orientation of demographic data does exist.The author also finds that the age mantissa orientation and the error differ from each other in the five times of population censuses.Finally,the author tells us that the first and fifth population census has a better data-accuracy than other censuses.

Keywords: Census, Accuracy Test of Population Data, Age Mantissa

摘要： 在以往对中国人口普查数据准确性评估的研究中,都认为中国人口普查的人口数据质量是高的,没有特定的年龄尾数指向。但两次普查的存活率观测值却显示,人口数据存在系统性误差,年龄尾数指向是存在的。文章提出了检验人口年龄报告准确性的新方法,在详细介绍这种检验方法的基础上,检验了中国人口普查数据,发现人口数据的年龄尾数指向的确是存在的,但在各次普查中人口集聚与散失的年龄尾数并不相同,误差程度也不相同。五次人口普查中,第一次(1953年)和第五次(2000年)人口普查的数据准确性要比其它几次普查差一些。

关键词: 人口普查, 人口数据准确性检验, 年龄尾数