China’s Fertility Level since 2000: A Reestimation

Population Research ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 54-65.

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China’s Fertility Level since 2000: A Reestimation

Yang Fan¹, Zhao Menghan²

1 Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872; 2 Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872

Published:2013-03-29 Online:2013-03-29
Contact: Yangfand@ruc.edu.cn
About Author:1 Lecturer,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China; 2 Graduate Student,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China

2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计

杨凡¹，赵梦晗²

1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京 100872；2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京 100872

通讯作者: Yangfand@ruc.edu.cn
作者简介:1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心讲师; 2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心硕士研究生
基金资助:
国家社科基金青年项目“第六次全国人口普查生育水平、年龄结构数据质量评估”(项目批准号:12CRK015)

Abstract

Abstract: China ’s recent fertility level is a long standing puzzle． Scholars have started to question the accuracy of official fertlity data and have heated discussions on the fertility rate since 1990 ． Deficiencies in the 2000 census data made the fertility issue more complicated． As the data of the 20 10 census have been published ，it is of great importance to evaluate the latest data to estimate the fertility level since 2000 ． This paper examines ，evaluates and compares the 2000 and 20 10 censuses data ，latest data from education and public security ，and reestimates China ’s fertility level since 2000 ． Total fertility rates have stood at more than 1． 6 since 2000 in China．

Keywords: Education Statistics, Public Security Statistics, Total Fertility Rate

摘要： 生育水平不仅是衡量人口发展状况的基础性指标,也是关系到国家战略性规划和相关政策制定的重要依据。但是,从上个世纪90年代开始,由于对官方公布的出生或生育数据质量的质疑不断,加之不同学者所估计的生育水平之间存在着巨大差异,导致1990年以后、特别是2000年以来的中国真实生育水平成了一个谜。2010年第六次全国人口普查数据的公布为解决这个问题带来了新的契机。文章通过对2000年、2010年普查数据、最新的教育统计数据以及最新的户籍登记数据的评估和比对,对2000年以来的中国人口生育水平进行了估计。综合多种数据、多种方法的研究结果,结论是2000年以来的总和生育率至少达到了1.6左右的水平。

关键词: 教育数据, 公安数据, 生育水平

Yang Fan, Zhao Menghan. China’s Fertility Level since 2000: A Reestimation[J]. Population Research, 2013, 37(2): 54-65.

杨凡，赵梦晗. 2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计[J]. 人口研究, 2013, 37(2): 54-65.

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URL: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/EN/abstract/abstract3217.shtml

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2013/V37/I2/54

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China’s Fertility Level since 2000: A Reestimation

2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计

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