Abstract: The deviation between fertility desires and behaviors is common among Chinese people of childbearing age. Little attention has been paid to the satisfaction of fertility desires from gender and time dimensions and its determinants. Based on data from the 2021 national sample survey conducted by the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China, this paper analyzes the satisfaction of fertility desires and the effect of family characteristics from three dimensions. The results show that more than half of the couples of childbearing age want to have children but failed to meet their desired number; forty percent failed to satisfy the desired sex; more than eighty percent did not meet the desired time with a later age of childbearing than the desired timing. The socioeconomic status and fertility potential of family play an important role in satisfying the desired number for all the couples. The effect of family fertility culture is not significant. The couples with unsatisfied sex preference tend to have more children to fulfill it. It is suggested to make precise policies for different types of couples of childbearing age to help them meet their fertility desires.

摘要： 当前中国育龄人群的生育意愿与行为存在偏离,但少有研究关注生育性别维度和时间维度的意愿满足情况及其影响因素。 基于中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 2021 年“低生育率背景下育龄家庭的生育机制与生育支持研究”全国抽样调查数据,从数量、性别和时间 3 个维度分析育龄夫妇生育意愿的满足情况及家庭特征的影响。 研究发现,超过半数育龄夫妇想生但未满足生育数量意愿,四成未满足生育性别意愿,八成未满足生育时间意愿且主要表现为实际初育时间晚于意愿初育时间;家庭社会经济地位和生育能力对育龄夫妇生育数量意愿的满足具有重要作用,家庭生育文化的影响不显著;性别偏好未满足的育龄夫妇有多生以实现生育性别意愿的倾向。 建议针对不同类型育龄夫妇精准施策以助其实现生育意愿。

关键词: 育龄夫妇, 家庭特征, 生育意愿的满足, 生育三维性, 生育类型