Abstract: There have long been debates and conflicting arguments in the studies of population carrying
capacity． This paper examines dilemmas and challenges in the studies of population carrying capacity．There are three major difficulties in the research of population carrying capacity: difficulty in conducting quantitative models of population carrying capacity with empirical researches due to limitations in theoretical hypotheses，difficulty in accurately determining the results of population carrying capacity due to the changing nature and the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors of population carrying capacity，and difficulty in operationalizing policy measures deriving from the research on population carrying capacity．The author argues that population carrying capacity exists objectively，and scholars should not abandon their research just because of the difficulties and problems in the studies of population carrying capacity．There is a need in the research on population carrying capacity to disembarrass of that of biological carrying capacity．Studies on population carrying capacity need to be conducted in dynamic perspectives．

Keywords: Population Carrying Capacity, Exponential Growth, Logistic Growth, Sustainable Development

摘要： 在人口承载力研究的过程中,始终伴随着对人口承载力的争论、质疑甚至否定。文章分析了人口承载力演变的过程和存在的困境及原因,认为目前的困难主要表现在:由于人口承载力研究理论假设的局限,从而导致了人口承载力的定量模型难以得到实证检验;人口承载力影响因素的动态性、不确定性和多样性,导致承载力结果难以精确测定;受到研究范式的局限,由概念的不精确和歧义导致了可操作性差。最后指出,人口承载力是客观存在的,不能因为人口承载力研究中存在的这些困难而作为放弃人口承载力研究的借口;人口承载力的研究,需要进一步摆脱生物承载力的研究模式,从一种固定不变的环境和不变的生活模式等解脱出来,从动态的变化的角度来研究人口承载力。

关键词: 人口承载力, 指数增长, 逻辑斯蒂增长, 可持续发展