Abstract: Based on economic,social and environmental panel data of eight counties in Bijie Prefecture between 1987 to 2007,this article explored the impact of resource environment,economic level and social development on changes of population distribution.The findings are multifaceted.First,the population quantity and density in these eight counties have increased steadily with a similar growth pattern and trend,although the pace of growth varies,suggesting regional disparities.Second,the effect of natural environment on population redistribution has been weakened over time to a lesser extent,which indicates that natural factors have an ingrained impact on the changes of population distribution.Third,the effect of economic and social development,particularly GDP per capita and the quality of medical care,on the changes of population density has been strengthened.Finally,each county in Bijie Prefecture exhibits obviously distinctive characteristics in terms of the dynamic trend of population density,although they share same impact of resources environment,the social and economic development.

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摘要： 本文基于1987～2007年毕节地区八个县市经济、社会和资源环境方面的面板数据,考察了资源环境、经济水平和社会发展等因素对毕节人口分布变动的影响。研究 发现,毕节各县市的人口总量和人口密度稳步增加,呈现协同式的增长态势,但各县市之间增长速度快慢不一,显示了区域间的差异;自然环境因素对人口地域分布变动的影响日趋减弱,但是减小的幅度并不大,说明了自然环境因素对人口分布变动的影响是根深蒂固的;经济水平和社会发展因素对人口密度变动的影响越来越大,其中尤以人均GDP和医疗条件变量更为显著;就人口密度的动态变化影响而言,除了受资源环境、社会经济发展因素的共同影响之外,毕节各个县市还表现出其个体显著差异的特征。

关键词: 人口分布变动, 面板数据, 固定效应, 随机效应