Abstract: Similar to the result of the 2000 census，China's 2010 census reported an extremely low total fertility rate ( TFR) of 1．18 births per woman． A range of diverse studies have been conducted on assessing census data quality and reestimating China's fertility，reaching substantially controversial results and highly different estimates． This paper provides an indirect estimation of China's 2010 fertility using two types of fertility data，namely，women's number of children ever born and fertility in the year preceding the census．Brass P/F ratio method is employed in this estimation．Results show that P/F ratios stand relatively constant at around 1．4 across age groups 20～24 to 35～39，suggesting that China's fertility in the past 15 years have been relatively stable，no further declines occurred． This also implies that period fertility reported from the 2010 census was underreported by 40 percent．Using the P /F of 1．4 to adjust the TFR of 1．18 leads to an estimated TFR of 1．66． The paper also discusses two possible biases when this approach is used in the Chinese context．

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Children Ever Born, Brass P/F Ratio Method, Indirect Estimation of Fertility

摘要： 2010年中国第六次人口普查再度得到了极低生育率，引发了很多研究的重新估计和讨论，似乎重复着10年前的争论。直接使用人口普查数据、使用调整的人口普查数据、使用其他来源的数据的研究得到的估计结果依然存在较大差异。文章使用人口普查中提供的两项生育数据，即妇女的曾生子女数和普查前一年的生育状况数据，应用Brass提出的生育率间接估计P/F 比值方法，对中国2010年的总和生育率进行了间接估计，得到的结果为1.66。对于P/F 比值，在20～24 岁至35～39岁年龄组上都保持着较为平稳一致的值，即为1.4左右。这表明在过去的15年里，中国的生育水平一直变化平稳，没有出现进一步的下降趋势。文章还对使用这种间接估计方法所得结果的准确性的可能影响因素进行了讨论。

关键词: 总和生育率, 曾生子女数, P/F比值, 生育率间接估计