Abstract: China has fully implemented a two-child fertility policy for couples that either side has no siblings. Meanwhile, two noticeable changes were observed in 2014. One was a noticeable fall in the sex ratio at birth, while the other was a marked increase of the number of annual births. In this context, this paper examines China’s current fertility by analyzing the effect of the new fertility policy and estimates fertility trends in the near future. Our analyses suggest that the new fertility policy has just had the effect that was previously expected, and China’s annual births would be expected to increase to nearly 18 million in 2015. China has not yet had the fertility “crisis”. With further adjustment of fertility policy, China’s fertility level still has potential to upturn and would rise to 1.7 or over in the very near future.

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摘要： 2014年，“单独二孩”政策在全面启动实施，中国出生人口迎来了两个新变化：一是出生人口性别比大幅降落，二是出生人口总数大幅上升。面对生育政策的新调整和出生人口的新变化，有必要对中国人口的生育现状及其未来变动趋势加以探讨。文章通过分析“单独二孩”政策实施效果讨论了中国人口的生育现状，并在此基础上对未来短期内中国生育水平的发展趋势加以推断。研究显示，到目前为止，“单独二孩”政策实施效果符合预期；依据全国“单独”夫妇的再生育申报状况可以推断出2015年全国出生人口总数有望升至接近1800万的水平；中国目前的总和生育率并未低至“危机”之中。伴随着生育政策的进一步调整完善，中国的生育水平仍具有回升潜力，未来短期内总和生育率将会上升至1.7以上的水平。

关键词: 中国出生人口, “单独二孩”政策, 生育率, 出生性别比