Abstract: In conducting a more extensive and in-depth analysis of the new two-child policy, this article summarizes the results from the existing studies, and provides new interpretations and rethinking of the new family planning policy by looking at China’s fertility level with lifetime and regional perspective. Research shows that women’s lifetime fertility level is not as low as the period fertility level, and China has not fallen into the “low fertility trap”. A fundamental feature of China’s fertility pattern is the large regional differences. Adjustment of fertility policy needs an overall consideration. It is too early to suggest that the new fertility policy has had effects that are far below expectations when the policy has just been implemented for one year. The new fertility policy is transitional, and plays a role of reducing birth accumulation when moving to a universal two-child policy. Policy adjustment and change will bring about a full range of social impacts.

Keywords: The New Two-Child Policy, Fertility Intention, Lifetime Fertility, Period Fertility

摘要： 随着“单独二孩”政策落地，生育政策再次成为社会热点，各种说法频出，有必要更广泛、深入的讨论。文章在对“单独二孩”政策实施后一年来相关研究成果进行梳理和总结的基础上，从妇女终身生育水平和生育地区差异的角度，对“单独二孩”政策进行了新的解读，并从多个侧面展开了政策思考。研究表明：妇女的终身生育水平没有从时期生育水平看到的那么低，中国尚谈不上已陷入“超低生育率陷阱”，地区差异大仍然是中国人口生育的基本特征，政策调整需要统筹兼顾。在“单独二孩”政策刚落地一年就做出政策“遇冷”判断不够审慎，过渡性的“单独二孩”政策发挥着向“全面二孩”政策接续的重要“错峰”作用。政策变化带来的社会影响要远比生育本身更广泛、复杂。

关键词: “单独二孩”政策, 生育意愿, 终身生育水平, 时期生育水平