Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the mass media on the divorce rate in China based on contract theory. We incorporate the widely identified factors influencing the stability of marriage into a single model and specify four main mechanisms through which the mass media may take into effect; that is, through widening the difference between expected utility and real utility of marriage, through changing the allocation of leisure time of the couple and especially through reducing the input of marriage specific capital, through reducing the (expected) divorce cost, and through weakening the disciplinary function of custom and social norms. Based on the panel data in 1998-2011 from 31 provinces in the mainland of China, the econometric regressions confirm the significantly positive effect of the mass media on the divorce rate in recent China. The results are robust after controlling for factors including the migration rate and education.

Keywords: Mass Media, the Internet Penetration, Contract Theory, Divorce

摘要： 针对目前中国社会高升的离婚率，文章基于1998~2011年中国31省的面板数据研究了网络、电视等大众传媒的普及对婚姻稳定性的影响，结果发现二者显著负相关，这一结果在控制了人口迁移率等诸多因素及变换包括静态面板模型和动态面板模型的多种回归模型后依然稳健。基于婚姻的契约理论，文章在一个统一的框架内识别出大众传媒对婚姻稳定性的影响机制，即通过瓦解有助于增强婚姻稳定性的传统社会规范，增加家庭生活预期效用和实际效用之间的偏差，改变家庭生活闲暇消费模式并降低有助于婚姻稳定的婚姻生活专用资本投入等渠道影响婚姻稳定性，降低已婚者遇到重大家庭矛盾时选择离婚的成本。为理解中国高升的离婚率提供了一种解释。

关键词: 大众传媒, 互联网普及, 契约理论, 离婚率