Abstract: Based on estimating the rate of ageing by calculating the change of frailty index of the Chinese oldest-old over time,this study concludes that the density distribution of rate of ageing looks like a cone with high proportion of samples converging the mean rate of ageing while the mean rates of ageing for the elderly at different ages are nearly the same,almost 2%-2.5% per year.The regression results show that all of the regression models of both early and present variables can explain at most 16% of the change of individual rate of ageing,which indirectly means that both the early experience and present status are not the main determinants of individual rate of ageing.Moreover,doing regular exercise both in early life and in present life,the adequacy of medical service if seriously ill and sufficiency of financial support for daily costs are helpful for the elderly to slow the rate of ageing,while most postulated determinants of rate of ageing are not tested statistically significantly in this study,including the birth place,current residcence,marriage times,availability of medical service both at around age 60 and in childhood,and experience of hunger in childhood.

Keywords: The Oldest Old, Rate of Ageing, Speed of Ageing, Frailty Index

摘要： 通过计算中国高龄老人虚弱指数随年龄变化速度来估算个体的老化率,发现高龄老人的老化率呈锥形分布,高度收敛于其平均值,且在不同年龄阶段的平均值趋于一致,即大约每年2%～2.5%老化速度。回归结果表明,无论是早期变量还是当前变量,最多只能解释16%的个体老化率的变化,这间接说明个体老化率的主要影响因素既不是早期经历也不是当前生活状况。此外,研究还发现,早期和现在有规律的运动、病重时有足够的医疗服务和在日常开支上有充足的财政支持,有助于一定程度上减慢个体的老化速度。不过,多数假设影响老化率的变量在本研究中的大多数模型中并不显著,这些变量包括出生地、现居住地、婚姻次数、现在的婚姻状态、早期的经济和医疗条件、幼年时期的饥饿经历、早期的喝酒和抽烟经历等。

关键词: 高龄老人, 老化率, 老化速度, 虚弱指数