Abstract: This paper studies the influencing factors of intermarriage rate in China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that the intermarriage rate of ethnic minorities in China has increased on the whole. There are great differences in the increase of intermarriage rate among different ethnic groups, which can be classified into three types according to the change value of interracial marriage rates and influencing factors. The results of classified regression analysis show that for the first group of the 17 ethnic groups, the change of urbanization rate and the basic value of intermarriage rate in 2000 have a significant impact on the increase of the intermarriage rate; for the second group of the 23 ethnic groups, the change in the proportion of the population with higher education and the change of urbanization rate have a significant impact on the increase of intermarriage rate; While the third group of the 15 ethnic groups has a small or negative increase in intermarriage rate.

Keywords: Variation in Interethnic Marriage, Cluster Analysis, Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression

摘要： 利用人口普查数据，采用聚类分析和逐步多元线性回归分析方法，研究2000~2010年中国各少数民族族际通婚率变化的影响因素。结果表明，中国少数民族族际通婚率总体有所增长，主要影响因素为居住分散度增大和人口流动率提高。各少数民族间族际通婚率增长差异悬殊，按族际通婚率变化量、影响因素变化量数值高低聚类成3类：对于第一类17个民族，城镇化率的提高及2000年族际通婚率较低对族际通婚率的提高影响显著；对于第二类23个民族，高等教育人口比例和城镇化率的增长对族际通婚率的提高影响显著；第三类15个民族族际通婚率增长幅度小或负增长，从社会背景分析，部分民族的族际通婚率已达到很高程度，缺乏提升空间，其他民族需要从宗教、语言等方面寻找影响因素。

关键词: 族际通婚率变化量, 聚类分析, 逐步多元线性回归