Abstract: Limited research on the influence of population decline on economic growth examines the large scale enterprise-level data. Based on the registration data of urban industrial and commercial enterprises and residents from 2009 to 2019, this study employs a fixed-effects model to examine the impact of population decline on enterprise entry in urban China and its mechanisms. The results reveal that, in urban China, population decline significantly restricts enterprise entry. On average, the population decline experienced by some cities led to an annual decrease of 2.5% in new enterprise entry nationwide from 2010 to 2019. On the supply side, the population decline reduces labor supply and inhibits technological progress, affecting labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries significantly. On the demand side, it curtails consumption demand, reduces investments, and hinders capital accumulation, impacting the entry of enterprises in hospitality, dining, sports, and entertainment industries. The effect is more pronounced in non-metropolitan and small to mid-sized cities.

Keywords: Urban Population Decline, Population Ageing, Enterprise Entry, Economic Impact

摘要： 人口负增长对经济增长产生何种影响尚缺乏来自微观企业层面的大样本经验证据。基于2009~2019年中国城市层面的工商企业注册数据和常住人口数据，使用固定效应模型考察城市人口负增长对企业进入的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：城市人口负增长显著抑制企业进入，仅在2010~2019年间，部分城市的人口负增长就使得各城市平均新进入企业数量每年减少约2.5%；在供给侧，人口负增长通过降低劳动力供给、抑制技术进步影响企业进入，对劳动密集型、技术密集型行业企业进入的影响十分显著；在需求侧，人口负增长通过抑制当地消费需求、降低投资和资本积累影响企业进入，对住宿餐饮体育和娱乐业企业进入产生显著影响；分城市类型看，人口负增长对非都市圈城市和中小城市的企业进入的抑制作用更大。

关键词: 城市人口负增长, 人口老龄化, 企业进入, 经济影响