Abstract: The postponement of first marriage has become a salient demographic change in China. However, existing explanations remain divided and often conceptualize age at first marriage as a single outcome indicator, with insufficient attention to the life course processes underlying its formation. This study aims to clarify the mechanisms of delayed first marriage in China by distinguishing the differential effects of changes in life course sequencing and timing shifts on age at first marriage, while examining how individual endowments and family background shape marriage transitions.

Drawing on life course theory, the study proposes an integrated “event-sequence-time” analytical framework capturing both the processual and outcome dimensions of first marriage. Within this framework, two distinct mechanisms of marriage postponement are identified. The first is a sequence effect, whereby the standardized life course is altered and marriage is no longer treated as a necessary life event, reflecting a process of de-institutionalization in which marriage is actively postponed or forgone. The second is a timing effect, whereby the standardized sequence remains largely intact, but delays in preceding events or the lengthening of transition periods lead to a higher age at first marriage.

The analysis draws on pooled cross-sectional data from five waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2005, 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2021). The study examines the sequencing and timing of three key early-life events, namely graduation, entry into first job, and first marriage, and their variation across cohorts. Descriptive statistics based on the proposed framework are first used to identify dominant life course patterns. Binary logistic regression models then estimate how individual endowments and family background influence adherence to a standardized life course sequence. To isolate the timing effect and reduce confounding from prolonged schooling, accelerated failure time (AFT) models are used to examine the effects of individual endowments and family background on the transition duration from graduation to first marriage.

The findings show that more than three-quarters of respondents follow a standardized sequence of “graduation-first job-first marriage.” Across cohorts, the average ages at graduation, first job entry, and first marriage have all increased.Meanwhile, the transition time from graduation to first marriage has shortened across cohorts. Individuals with higher endowments are more likely to deviate from the standardized sequence and experience faster transitions into first marriage, whereas those from more advantaged family backgrounds are more likely to adhere to standardized sequences and have longer transition times. The sequence effect operates mainly among people with high individual endowments, while the timing effect is widespread across social groups. Overall, the postponement of first marriage in China mainly reflects timing effects rather than structural changes in the sequencing of life course events.

By integrating process and outcome dimensions, this study advances the understanding of marriage timing as a life course transition shaped by both event sequencing and timing dynamics. The findings suggest that policies to encourage age-appropriate marriage and childbearing in China need to consider the structured linkage between marriage, education, and employment, rather than focusing solely on marital or fertility-related interventions.

Keywords: Marriage Delay, “Event-Sequence-Time” Analytical Framework, Life Course Theory

摘要： 初婚推迟已成为低生育率社会的普遍现象，会引发一系列社会后果。然而，当前对初婚推迟现象的理论解释尚存在分歧。文章从生命历程理论视角出发，构建“事件—次序—时间”分析框架，兼顾过程与结果双重维度，聚焦个人禀赋和家庭背景的影响，探索初婚推迟的原因。研究发现，超过3/4的样本遵循“毕业—初职—初婚”的标准化生命历程；尽管各事件的平均发生时间随着时代变化均有所推迟，但“毕业—初婚”过渡时间随出生队列推移呈显著缩短趋势。高个人禀赋会促进个体遵循非标准化生命历程并加速初婚过渡；优势家庭背景则会促进个体遵循标准化生命历程并减缓初婚过渡。初婚推迟的次序效应机制仅对高个人禀赋者有效；时间效应机制普遍存在，且时间顺延效应是初婚推迟的主要原因。文章的政策启示在于，促进青年适龄婚育需要综合考虑教育与就业的结构化安排。

关键词: 初婚推迟, “事件—次序—时间”分析框架, 生命历程理论