Abstract: By adopting the AECI Index Method proposed by the author and using method of population simulation,this paper analyzes quantitatively the trend,intensity and regulation of the economic pressure of population ageing in China,and compares China with other countries.It draws the following conclusions:(1) China will face great economic pressure due to population ageing in the first half of this century.According to the medium projection,the pressure will increase most rapidly during the period from the middle of 2020s to the end of 2030s,and reach its peak around 2040 when the intensity of the pressure may quadruple that in 2010.(2) The great economic pressure of population ageing may remarkably reduce China’s development momentum.(3) To ease the pressure,we should rely mainly on economic measures,supplemented by population control measures.(4) To gradually liberalize the prevailing birth control policy on the premise of sticking to the state policy of family planning is a rational approach to regulate the economic pressure of population ageing in China.On the one hand,this can ease the possible economic pressure of ageing in the future,and on the other hand,it can control the pressure of population size within an endurable limit.

Keywords: Population ageing, Economic pressure, Regulation, Fertility policy

摘要： 运用作者提出的AECI指数法并借助人口模拟,对1980～2050年中国人口老龄化经济压力的强度、趋势和调控进行系统的定量分析和国际比较,发现:本世纪上半叶中国将面临巨大的人口老龄化经济压力,按中方案预测,2020年代中至2030年代末将是压力增大最快时期,压力高峰将出现在2040年前后,高峰时的压力将可能达到2010年压力的4倍;巨大的人口老龄化经济压力将有可能显著地削弱中国崛起的后劲;缓解未来人口老龄化经济压力必须以经济手段为主、人口手段为辅;在坚持计划生育基本国策的前提下中等幅度逐步放宽现行生育政策,既可有效地缓解未来人口老龄化经济压力,又可同时将人口规模压力控制在可承受范围内,这是调控中国人口老龄化经济压力的合理路径。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 经济压力, 调控, 生育政策