Population Research

Statistical Analysis of Longitudinal Data

Ren Qiang; Xie Yu

2011, 35(6): 3-12.

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The paper introduces the basic ideas of design for longitudinal survey data and its advantages and shortcomings,and discusses the rationales for collecting longitudinal data from the statistical perspectives.Longitudinal data are informative because they enable identification of population heterogeneity,study of intervening causal mechanisms,study of causal effects,and study of state transitions.Special considerations in longitudinal settings are addressed,as well as the importance of hypotheses,illustrated with examples of study designs using longitudinal data.Longitudinal data are not perfect,because the most serious shortcomings come from the intrinsic variability of humans and human behaviors.Given such severe limitations,what researchers of social phenomena can do is to develop better understanding,better conceptualization,and better data analysis,aided by longitudinal data.

Household Income and Wealth Inequality in Urban China: 1995-2002

Wu Xiwei

2011, 35(6): 13-26.

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Based on datasets from 1995 and 2002 China Household Income Survey,this paper investigates income and wealth inequality in urban China,with household as the unit of analysis.Analytic results suggest that most of inequality measures show a significant increase in income inequality,while a somewhat decrease in wealth inequality among urban households between 1995 and 2002.By demographic decompositions,we find that economic regions,household head’s education and the membership of CCP have more important contributions to overall household income and wealth inequalities.In general,for urban China from 1995 to 2002,the sorting mechanism plays a more important role in generating resource inequality among households.

The Economic Pressure of Population Ageing in China and Its Regulation

Mo Long

2011, 35(6): 27-42.

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By adopting the AECI Index Method proposed by the author and using method of population simulation,this paper analyzes quantitatively the trend,intensity and regulation of the economic pressure of population ageing in China,and compares China with other countries.It draws the following conclusions:(1) China will face great economic pressure due to population ageing in the first half of this century.According to the medium projection,the pressure will increase most rapidly during the period from the middle of 2020s to the end of 2030s,and reach its peak around 2040 when the intensity of the pressure may quadruple that in 2010.(2) The great economic pressure of population ageing may remarkably reduce China’s development momentum.(3) To ease the pressure,we should rely mainly on economic measures,supplemented by population control measures.(4) To gradually liberalize the prevailing birth control policy on the premise of sticking to the state policy of family planning is a rational approach to regulate the economic pressure of population ageing in China.On the one hand,this can ease the possible economic pressure of ageing in the future,and on the other hand,it can control the pressure of population size within an endurable limit.

An Analysis of the Identity Problem of the Disabled Elderly

Yao Yuan, Chen Xu

2011, 35(6): 43-50.

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Identity is an important aspect of mental health of the disabled elderly.Based on the data of in-depth interview with disabled elderly in Beijing,this research examines the main contents,characteristics and strategies of the identity problems associated with the disabled elderly from demographic and sociological perspective.We have found that their identity involves in four aspects: individual identity,personal identity,group identity and social identity,which all have profound effects on their daily life and the quality of life.We suggest that alleviating their sense of "inferiority",strenghtening their recognition of group identity,and optimizating the recognition of "socialized people" are important approaches to improve the mental and psychological status,and to promote the quality of life of the disabled elderly.

Age Differences in Life Satisfaction among the Elderly

Luo Weixiang, Li Jianxin

2011, 35(6): 51-61.

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Using multiple waves of data from the Chinese Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey,this study examines the relationship between age and life satisfaction among the elderly in China.We found that age has both negative effects and positive effects on elderly life satisfaction with the positive effects overweighing the negative ones.Consequently,life satisfaction goes up with age.The positive impact of age on self-reported life satisfaction primarily results from age maturity effect.

Promoting Enterprises’ Upgrading Transformation to Deal with China’s Labor Shortage

Gu Shengzu, Pan Xiaosong, Yang Wei

2011, 35(6): 62-72.

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This paper summarizes basic features of China’s labor shortage,analyzes its sources,and proposes recommendations to deal with the shortage for the government and enterprises.Labor shortage might be allevated by reducing labor dependence through mechanization and automation,by cutting high labor costs through improving efficiency,and by decreasing staff turnover through management transformation.In order to promote enterprises’ upgrading transformation,the government shall accelerate regional industrial structure adjustment,strengthen vocational training of migrant workers,speed up the modernization of agriculture,provide migrant workers citizenship treatment,optimize employment services and labor market,and implement proactive fiscal and tax policies.

Towards A Population-balanced Development in Zhejiang

Zhang Wenbiao

2011, 35(6): 73-77.

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In the process of promoting coordinated and sustainable development among population,and economy,and resources and environment,the Zhejiang provincial government has continuously taken measures to deal with the imbalanced population problems.Such effort was first taken by local governments;then the provincial government brought population ecological system in the construction of ecological province.Most recently,the provincial government brings the basic requirements of balanced population development and a population-balanced society building together with the resource-saving society,environment-friendly society in the construction of the province’s ecological civilization.It has achieved the goal of combination of population-balanced,resource-saving,and environment-friendly society construction.At the same time,the strategic work,development path and scientific objects for future family planning in Zhejiang province have been made clear.This paper elaborates the general idea and proposes four suggestions to promote balanced population development and a population-balanced Society construction.

Chinese Human Development Index and Comparative Study across Its Regions

Zhou Gongwei

2011, 35(6): 78-89.

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Based on the three dimensions of HDI proposed by UNDP and taking into account China’s characteristics of human development,this paper first constructs the Chinese human development index(CHDI) by adding poverty reduction dimension and fairness dimension into HDI.It then draws on related provincial/regional/municipal statistical data in 2003,2005 and 2008 to calculate the value of Chinese human development index for each province/region/city in order to reflect the current situation of human development in various administrative units,and examine the trend of human development.Based on the aforementioned analysis,cluster analytic method is applied to each unit in order to provide scientific basis for the analysis of influencing factors of CHDI,illustrate the rules of human development,and provide evidence for the government to reformulate favorable policies for economic and social development.

Defects and Reconstruction of Growth Environment for Left-behind Children and Migrant Children: From the Perspective of Resilience Theory

Wu Fan, Yang Weiwei

2011, 35(6): 90-99.

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From the logical starting point of corresponding structure of the risk factors and protective factors and drawing on the perspective of resilience theory,this paper,by situating Left-behind Children and Migrant Children into the same analytical framework,found that the two groups of children,while unique,share more similarities.They both reside in a growth environment without certain protective factors,which enlarge the probability of risk factors.Based on the exploration of risk factors faced by Left-behind Children and Migrant Children,this paper proposes a policy orientation of "the maximum protection and minimum limits",which improves protective factors,and enhances risk prevention mechanisms by eliminating institutional barriers,and building family development capacity.

The Status and Influencing Factors of Citizenization of New Generation Rural Migrant Workers

Zhang Fei

2011, 35(6): 100-109.

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The citizenization of new generation rural migrant workers is an important aspect in promoting urbanization in the 12th Five-year Period.Based on previous research and by establishing an index of citizenization of new generation rural migrant workers,this paper finds that they have achieved a medium-level citizenization.Regression results show that the individual features of new generation rural migrant workers(e.g.,gender,age,with or without farming experience,and number of siblings) have a significant effect;family factors(e.g.,whether co-residing with family members during work,and whether or not the father has migrated out for work) have rather little affect,while subjective self-assessment and the sense of belonging to cities affect their individual features dramatically.

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