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    Divergence and Convergence: The Evolution of Ageing Attitudes among Older Adults in China
    Liang Hong
    Population Research    2026, 50 (3): 3-18.  
    Abstract (7092)      PDF (1373KB)(201)       Save
    In the new era where rapid population ageing has become a fundamental national condition, cultivating positive ageing attitudes is pivotal to achieving “Healthy Ageing” and “Active Ageing” in China. However, existing research largely relies on cross-sectional data and thus fails to reveal the dynamic evolutionary mechanisms of ageing attitudes over the life course or their underlying structural logic. Ageing attitudes reflect both older adults' internal perceptions of senescence and society's valuation of the elderly, and their developmental trajectories critically shape quality of life in later years.

    Drawing on life course theory—with a specific focus on random variability, trajectory divergence, and cumulative advantage/disadvantage—and using three waves of panel data (2014, 2020, and 2023) from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study employs hierarchical linear growth models to systematically examine the dynamic evolution, dimensional differentiation, and social stratification effects of ageing attitudes among Chinese older adults. It addresses three core questions: whether ageing attitudes change with advancing age, whether inter-individual divergence intensifies or mitigates over time, and how educational attainment and urban-rural residence shape these developmental trajectories.

    Three key findings emerge. First, ageing attitudes exhibit significant dimensional divergence. Self-related ageing attitudes become markedly more negative with advancing age, reflecting the negative impact of embodied experiences such as functional decline; conversely, general ageing attitudes shift significantly toward positivity, shaped by the discourse of successful ageing. This creates a cognitive distinction characterised by a “self-negative, group-positive” pattern. Second, the evolution of ageing attitudes presents a complex pattern of trajectory divergence but level convergence. While substantial random variation exists in initial levels and rates of change, the trajectories follow an evolutionary mode of “rapid decline from high starting points, slow change from low starting points”. Consequently, the gap between high-initial and low-initial groups progressively narrows as the ageing process unfolds, demonstrating an “equalising effect” inherent in late-life development. Third, education and residence exert opposing moderating effects onthe initial level and rate of change of ageing attitudes. Although older adults with upper secondary education or higher and those in urban areas start with more positive ageing attitudes, they experience a significantly faster rate of decline than their less-educated and rural counterparts. The latter group, despite lower initial levels, shows greater psychological resilience and improving trends, thereby substantially reducing psychological inequality across social groups over time.

    These findings challenge the classical life course premise that cumulative advantage/disadvantage inevitably leads to persistent divergence. It provides robust empirical evidence from the Chinese context for a “psychological rebalancing mechanism” in advanced old age, whereby the universality of objective ageing realities weakens the persistence of early-life resource advantages, and the tension between subjective expectations and objective realities drives convergence in ageing attitudes. Theoretically, this study integrates structural position and psychological agency, offering a more integrated understanding of late-life psychological development. Practically, it suggests that ageing policies should shift from focusing on “starting-point equity” to emphasising “process-oriented intervention”, distinguish between self-related and general dimensions for targeted implementation, and establish dynamic trajectory-based evaluation mechanisms to build a more inclusive and process-sensitive governance system for ageing.

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    Demographic Structural Evolution and Policy Responses for China's Out-of-School Adolescents
    Lyu Lidan, Chen Yunlong
    Population Research    2026, 50 (3): 19-33.  
    Abstract (6793)      PDF (1327KB)(162)       Save
    Since the enactment of the Compulsory Education Law in 1986, China has achieved remarkable progress in educational development, transitioning to high-quality population development. However, due to its immense demographic scale, out-of-school adolescents (OOSA) remain substantial, reaching 14.24 million in 2020. Understanding OOSA's demographic evolution is essential for mitigating social governance risks and unlocking human capital potential. Utilizing data from four waves of China's National Population Census (1990-2020), this study examines the longitudinal evolution and emerging characteristics of OOSA aged 10-19 across demographic composition, spatial mobility, urban-rural distribution, and labor market participation.

    The research reveals four critical shifts. First, the demographic composition of OOSA has undergone a structural transformation. Overall, OOSA are predominantly aged 15 and above (beyond compulsory education), and the primary stage of educational attrition has shifted from primary/lower secondary to lower/upper secondary completion. Notably, in recent years, the size and share of OOSA within the compulsory education age group (10-14) has rebounded from 2.24 million (3.0%) in 2010 to 3.92 million (4.6%) in 2020. Boys face higher dropout risk, leading to an increasingly male-skewed ratio among OOSA, while girls who leave school face a significantly higher risk of early marriage.

    Second, the spatial distribution of OOSA is being restructured. While 73.8% hold rural Hukou, over half (55.3%) are now urban-dwelling. The proportion of OOSA living in urban areas is nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of all adolescents. By age group, urbanization of OOSA aged 10-15 is similar to peers, but for those aged 16-19, the gap in urbanization rates relative to all adolescents widened from 5.3 percentage points in 1990 to 20.3 percentage points in 2020, indicating a clear lag.

    Third,OOSA spatial mobility has intensified, with sustained concentration in eastern regions. There is a robust correlation between inter-provincial migration and out-of-school status. In 2020, 30.9% of OOSA were migrants, up from 2.6% in 1990. The proportion of inter-provincial migrants among OOSA has consistently been much higher than that among all migrant adolescents. In recent years, although adolescents' opportunities to attend high school and college have increased, institutional barriers to cross-regional school progression for migrant adolescents have not eased, leading some inter-provincial migrant adolescents to drop out directly in their destinations.

    Fourth, labor market participation of working-age OOSA (16-19) has undergone a structural transition. Employment rates declined from 83.4% in 2010 to 76.4% in 2020. The association between employment and migration has strengthened: by 2020, migrant OOSA's employment rate was 34.2 percentage points higher than that of non-migrants. Moreover, OOSA employment has shifted from primary to secondary and tertiary industries. In 2020, the tertiary sector accounted for 53.9% of employed OOSA, becoming their main employment field.

    Based on these findings, the study concludes that policy interventions for OOSA must evolve toward a comprehensive governance framework focused on human capital accumulation and social support, including: promoting diverse and inclusive basic education options; improving lifelong education to enhance re-education accessibility; reforming education finance and resource supply to remove barriers to schooling for migrant adolescents and facilitate their enrollment and progression; seizing digital intelligence era opportunities to build stratified employment and skills support; and supporting OOSA's social integration and stable development by incorporating them into community-based social work services.

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