关键词: 第二次人口红利, 经济增长, 理论模型, 数值模拟

Abstract: This article systemically reviews the “Second Demographic Dividend” theories and dissects the inner functional mechanisms. Base on the perspective of dual capital deepening, we reexamine and predict the “Second Demographic Dividend”. We use the theoretical model and numerical method to do the simulation analysis. The study finds that the inner driving mechanism of the “Second Demographic Dividend” roots in the sustaining action of the “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and the “Demographic Quality Dividend”. The moderate ageing and low birth rate of our country can help form the “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and lengthen the “QuantityQuality substitution”. The “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and the “Demographic Quality Dividend” can strongly promote economic growth by the dual capital deepening. The numerical modeling suggests that the excessive high ageing rate and excessive low birth rate can weaken this effect farther. So we should put the appropriate population and economic policies into effect to ensure the achievement of the “Second Demographic Dividend” by our country.

Keywords: Second Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, Theoretical Model, Numerical Simulation