中国家庭户规模结构变动及其对居民消费的影响

人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 98-113.

中国家庭户规模结构变动及其对居民消费的影响

傅崇辉¹,傅愈²,伍丽群³,魏倩⁴,焦桂花⁵

傅崇辉¹，广东医科大学人文与管理学院；傅愈²，深圳市云天统计科学研究所；伍丽群³，深圳市卫生健康发展研究中心；魏倩⁴，深圳市云天统计科学研究所；焦桂花⁵（通讯作者），广东医科大学人文与管理学院。

出版日期:2021-01-29 发布日期:2021-02-05
作者简介:傅崇辉，广东医科大学人文与管理学院教授；傅愈，深圳市云天统计科学研究所助理研究员；伍丽群，深圳市卫生健康发展研究中心副研究员；魏倩，深圳市云天统计科学研究所副研究员；焦桂花（通讯作者），广东医科大学人文与管理学院副研究员。
基金资助:
本文得到广东省基础与应用基础研究基金“中国经济转型升级的人口结构条件与适应路径研究”（2019A1515110198）、广东省教育科学“十三五”规划2019年度高校哲学社会科学专项研究项目 “粤港澳大湾区能源转型的时空特点与多目标协同优化研究”（2019GXJK096）和广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“粤港澳大湾区人口-经济-环境的协同机制与优化管理研究”（GD20CGL18）的资助。

Changes in Household Size and Impacts on Residential Consumption in China

Fu Chonghui¹,Fu Yu²,Wu Liqun³,Wei Qian⁴,Jiao Guihua⁵

Fu Chonghui¹, School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical University; Fu Yu², Shenzhen Yuntian Institute of Statistical Science; Wu Liqun³, Shenzhen Health Development Research Center; Wei Qian⁴, Shenzhen Yuntian Institute of Statistical Science; Jiao Guihua⁵(Corresponding Author), School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical University.

Online:2021-01-29 Published:2021-02-05
About author:Fu Chonghui is Professor, School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical University; Fu Yu is Assistant Researcher, Shenzhen Yuntian Institute of Statistical Science; Wu Liqun is Associate Researcher, Shenzhen Health Development Research Center; Wei Qian is Associate Researcher, Shenzhen Yuntian Institute of Statistical Science; Jiao Guihua(Corresponding Author) is Associate Researcher, School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical University.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对中国的平均家庭户规模和家庭户规模结构的变动趋势进行预测，并将预测结果用于居民消费变动的因素分解。研究发现，平均家庭户规模在2.5人/户左右波动，形成了以1、2人户占比上升，3、4人户为主，5～7人及以上户占比下降的家庭户规模结构变化特征；1人户和2人户占比的上升是居民消费增长的主要家庭因素，家庭户规模结构变动对消费的影响强度超过了消费水平；人口因素和家庭因素的变化有其自身的惯性，对于居民消费的增长具有刚性作用，在趋势情景下，人口因素的消费拉动作用下降、家庭因素的消费促进作用上升。家庭户规模结构变化对社会、经济和环境产生深刻影响，政策制定应该充分考虑家庭户规模结构变化的潜在影响。

关键词: 家庭户规模结构, 平均家庭户规模, 居民消费, 因素分解

Abstract: This paper projects the average household size in China, and decomposes the total residential consumption into the factors of population size, household size, and consumption levels. The study finds that the average household size fluctuates around 2.5 persons per household. The proportion of households with 1 person and 2 persons will rise, 3-person and 4-person households will account for the largest proportion, while the proportion of 5-7-person households will decrease. The growth of 1-person and 2-person households is the major driving force of the growth of residential consumption. The influence of changes in household size on residential consumption exceeds that of consumption level. The changes in demographic and household factors have its own inertia, which has a rigid effect on the consumption growth. Under the trend scenario, the contribution of demographic factors to consumption will decrease while that of household factors will increase. Because changes in household size have a profound impact on society, economy, and the environment, policymaking should take into account the potential impact of changes in household size.

Keywords: Proportion of Different Household Sizes, Average Household Size, Residential Consumption, Decomposition of Factors

傅崇辉, 傅愈, 伍丽群, 魏倩, 焦桂花. 中国家庭户规模结构变动及其对居民消费的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(1): 98-113.

Fu Chonghui, Fu Yu, Wu Liqun, Wei Qian, Jiao Guihua. Changes in Household Size and Impacts on Residential Consumption in China[J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(1): 98-113.

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