Table of Content

29 January 2012, Volume 36 Issue 1

Previous Issue    Next Issue

The Urban Labor Market Status of China’s Floating Population: A Three-Group Approach

Guo Fei, Zhang Zhanxin

2012, 36(1):  3-14. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (187KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Past research on the status of floating population in the urban labor market in China tended to focus on migrants from rural areas to cities.This paper takes consideration of both migrants from rural areas and migrants from other cities and analyzes factors affecting wage income distribution and social insurance participation among three groups of population in urban China,namely rural migrants,urban migrants and urban local workers.The study is based on data from a 2008 survey in four large Chinese cities.The results of this study confirm that if demographic and human capital related factors are controlled there are no significant wage differentials among local urban workers,urban migrants and rural migrants,but the likelihoods of social insurance participation for the three groups with different household registration status are significantly different with the lowest among rural migrants and highest among urban local workers.It implies that wage income has been largely determined by non-institutional labor market mechanisms,but social insurance participation is still associated with one’s hukou status,an institutional mechanism that played a determining role of one’s life chance and economic wellbeing in the pre-reform China.It confirms that rural/urban divide in the household registration system has become less important than the divide between migrants and local residents in Chinese cities.

From First Demographic Transition to Second Demographic Transition: Reflections on the Modern Demographic Transition

Liu Shuang, Wei Yinxia, Ren Hui

2012, 36(1):  15-24. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (387KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on a brief analysis of the narrowly-defined demographic transition and the classical model,this paper argues that the proposed theory of the second demographic transition broadly interprets the internal motivation and mechanism of action of the demographic changes by drawing upon the demographic "intermediate variables",reflecting on the relationship between modern demographic transition and social changes at the macro,meso and micro levels.Demographic transition is a multi-dimensional dynamic historical process,involving a set of transitions on marriage,reproduction,family,health,population control etc.Demographic transition is not only demographic change,but more importantly,is its nested social change.The unprecedented close relationship between the two reflects the social changes and social needs.Over the past 30 years China has made its population be adapted to economic development through family planning.In the next 30 to 50 years or even longer,China should make economic and social development be adapted to the changes and needs of the population.The end of development is to improve population survival and enhance life quality.

Exploration and Establishment of the Chinese Model of Demographic Transition

Yang Fan, Zhai Zhenwu

2012, 36(1):  25-33. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (232KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Exploration of Chinese paths of socialist construction and demographic transition paralleled each other from 1949 to 1978.Mortality rate decreased rapidly during the early 1950s as a result of the public health campaign,which initiated the process of demographic transition in China.Countering the problem of rapid population growth in 1950s,China put forward the theory and the concept of "realizing planned childbearing",and the Chinese model of demographic transition was brewing.Orientation of the Chinese path of demographic transition was reinforced in the 1960s in the context of intensifying contradiction between population and socio-economic development.Finally,China launched the demographic transition by vigorously implementing population control and family planning in the 1970s in the midst of "Cultural Revolution" when the rapidly increasing size of population exerted great pressure on economic development.The Chinese path of demographic transition is determined by the changing characteristics of the times and China’s special national conditions.

Fertility Transition in China: A Zigzag and Splendid Course

Xie Zhenming

2012, 36(1):  34-44. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (708KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Examining China’s population changes in the past three decades demonstrates that China’s demographic transition has been successfully completed with a splendid and zigzag path.There are profound historical experiences and lessons.This paper reviews China’s fertility transition which is divided into four periods and argues that fertility changes are a result of the interactions between socio-economic development,fertility behaviors and fertility policies.Substantial resistance to the "one-child policy" during 1979 to 1984 resulted in rebounding and fluctuating fertility.The baby boom occurred in the period 1985 to 1991 was a manifestation of the inherent laws of demographic dynamics,and subsequently forceful birth control was again mobilized.The period from 1992 to 1999 witnessed large declines in fertility which penetrates the replacement zone,showing that China was completing the fertility transition.China’s stabilizing low fertility and emerging population structural issues since 2000 call for comprehensive ways in addressing the population problems.

Demographic Transition with Chinese Characteristics

Ma Li, Gui Jiangfeng

2012, 36(1):  45-51. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (307KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This article develops a balanced-population development approach to the demographic transition theory,arguing that demographic transition is a process in which societies move from a low-level population balance to a high-level population balance.China has experienced two phases of demographic transition: a stage in which the demographic transition occurred ahead of economic development and a stage in which it interacts with economic development;and China needs to stride across two traps in the demographic transition process: a "high-child-dependency" tarp and a "high old-dependency" trap.Stabilizing moderately low fertility levels and enhancing quality of the population are among the fundamental tasks for the future.

Effects of Household Dynamics on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

Xiao Zhouyan

2012, 36(1):  52-62. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1304KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Population and its growth have been regarded as the major driving force of carbon dioxide emissions,while the effects of household dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions have been largely neglected.In this paper,a multi-variable model(VAR) is built in which the dynamic effects among population,household and carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed through impulse response function method(IRF).A variance decomposition technique is adopted to investigate the differences and relative importance of their effects.The results show that the variables representing household dynamics have stronger explanatory power than that of the total population.Family size effect on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the effect of household numbers,which in turn is greater than the population effect.Therefore,sustainable patterns of family household should be advocated in the policy-making of energy conservation and emission reduction.Household reduction of emission would have a larger potential to meeting the reduction goals.

Dynamic Effects on Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Population and Consumption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Variable Parameter Model

Li Guozhi, Zhou Ming

2012, 36(1):  63-72. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (249KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

With global climate warming,the problem of carbon dioxide emissions reduction has attracted worldwide attention in the recent past.As the largest carbon emitter,China must gradually reduce the carbon emissions in the process of economic development.Drawing on the time series data between 1978 to 2009 and using variable parameter model,this paper analyzes the dynamic effects on carbon dioxide emissions of population and consumption in China.Results show that there is a long-term stable relationship among population,consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,and the effects of population and consumption are very significant.Overall,the population elasticity is greater than the consumption elasticity,but the gap becomes smaller in recent years.Influence of consumption is increasing.There is a regular pattern in the trend of impact elasticity of population and consumption,and the trend can be divided into three distinct phases.With these findings,this paper discusses policy implications for reducing carbon dioxide emissions relating to population and consumption.

Factors Affecting Farmers’ Participation in the New Rural Pension Insurance

Mu Huaizhong, Yan Linlin

2012, 36(1):  73-82. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (165KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Farmers’ current status and the factors influencing their participation in the New Rural Social Pension Insurance are central to a successful conduct of the insurance pilot work.Drawing on data from a sample survey in Liaoning Province’s Zhangwu County,this paper examines patterns and determinants of farmer’s participation in the insurance by individual characteristics,policy confidence,and policy implementation.The survey shows that there are institutional barriers to participating in the New Rural Pension Insurance.The polit policies have attracted participants who are at low income,low education,poor health,and elder ages approaching insurance return.Understanding of the policy,convenience of the procedures for insurance participation,and attitude of service providers are the factors that have positive impact on participation.Based on the analysis,this paper discusses policy implications for improvement and development of the insurance,including establishing incentives for participating in the insurance with individual accounts,raising awareness of service,ensuring policy sustainability,and establishing linkage mechanisms for a variety of pension systems.

Impact of Religious Attendance on Mortality Risk of China’s Oldest Old

Zhu Hui, Lu Jiehua

2012, 36(1):  83-92. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (170KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Drawing upon data from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Aging Survey from 1998 to 2005 and using Cox hazard regression model,this paper analyzes impact of religious attendance on mortality risk of the Chinese oldest old,and examines the roles of physical/mental health,healthy behaviors and socioeconomic supports in this relationship,in order to test four types of theoretical models in the literature.The results show that religious attendance is correlated with mortality risk.However,the effects of other potential explanatory variables can reduce the association.The findings suggest that religious attendance may represent a proxy for physical health,especially among the oldest old.

New Exploration of Practical Urbanization with New Policy of Household Registration Reform: The Case of Zhongshan City

Zheng Zizhen, Song Jian

2012, 36(1):  93-101. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (154KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The urban-rural dual structure based household registration system in China is becoming increasingly obstructive in social and economic development.The current household registration system particularly acts as a major institutional barrier to migration in the context of accelerating urbanization in China.Taking lead in China,Zhongshan city carried out floating population accumulated points management,introducing a set of quantified standards through integral accumulated points for the floating population to enjoy the city’s basic public services and obtain the local household registration.This policy is a new and practical exploration deconstructing the household registration system.Drawing on data of the accumulated points management and interviews with applicants,this paper examines characteristics and effects of the policy,identifies problems and discusses implications for further improving equality of the basic public services.

China’s Internal Migration and Health Selection Effect

Qi Yaqiang, Niu Jianlin, William Mason, Donald Treiman

2012, 36(1):  102-112. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (187KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Drawing on data from the 2008 Chinese Internal Migration and Health Survey,we compare various health indicators among rural residents who never migrated,return migrants,current rural-to-urban migrants,and urban residents.Two health selective mechanisms,the healthy migrant hypothesis and the salmon bias hypothesis,are empirically tested.Results provide empirical support to both these hypotheses.After controlling for individual’s age,sex,socioeconomic status and major health-related behaviors,rural-to-urban migrants are better off than rural residents who never migrated regarding their self-rated general health,chronic medical conditions,self-perceived physical discomforts and lung capacity.Current rural-to-urban migrants are also less likely to have chronic diseases or to report physical discomforts than return migrants.Except for self-reported chronic conditions and abnormally high heart rate,there is no significant difference in health status between rural-to-urban migrants and urban residents.