Table of Content

29 July 2011, Volume 35 Issue 4

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The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age-specific Fertility Rates

Wang Gongzhou,Hu Yaoling

2011, 35(4):  4-17. 

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Based on the period age-specific fertility rate,this paper has proposed an estimation method of the cohort age-specific fertility rate and uses data of the birth cohort of 1950-1981 to explain its feasibility and reliability.This method can be applied to analyze the pattern of parity progression and related issues,particularly for the adjustment of Chinese family planning policy.Using this method,this paper has estimated the quantity and structure of women with one child,and women who are allowed to have two children by the current family planning policy but have had only one child.This would have implications for family planning policy research.

Migrating-out and Left-behind in the View of Life Course:A Comparative Analysis of the Characteristics of the Second-generation Migrant Workers

Liang Hong

2011, 35(4):  18-29. 

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Drawing on survey data from "Theoretical and Practical Research on Peasant Laborers’ Rights and Interests" in 2010,and based on age and experience of left-behind or migration in childhood,this paper identifies the second-generation peasant-workers who are deeply affected by parental labor migration,and compare their various characteristics.It shows that the characteristics of the second-generation peasant-workers is largely associated with their experiences of out-migration or left-behind in childhood.They are more likely to be "the amphibious persons" who do not benefit from the intergenerational transmission of labor migration between rural areas and cities,and consequently less likely to identify themselves being residents of the destination.The implication of such findings is that more attention should be paid to migrant and left-behind children and the second-generation peasant-workers with experience of migration or left-behind in childhood.Additionally,it is necessary to establish a system collecting prospective longitudinal data for migrant and left-behind children or retrospective longitudinal data for second-generation peasant-workers.

Persistence and Innovation——The Research on the Evolution of CPC Leaders’ Population Thoughts

Zhai Zhenwu,Yang Fan

2011, 35(4):  45-55. 

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The leaders of CPC cleared their attitudes toward family planning in 1962 and answered the question whether population-control policies should be carried out in socialist society.Since then,in the guidance of Marxist theory,according to the concrete practice of China’s population development,the leaders of CPC not only adhered to the answer that population control policies should be implemented in socialist society,but also gave creative answers to the questions about the purpose and means of population control.The population thoughts and theories,based on the answers to the questions about population control,which are the complement and enrichment of the Marxist population theory,are important components of socialist population theory and significant theoretical results of Marxism Sinicization.

The Analysis on the Potential and Trend of the Non-agricultural Transfer of Chinese Rural Labor in the Following 20 Years

Tong Yu fen,Zhu Yanhong,Zheng Dongdong

2011, 35(4):  56-65. 

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The non-agriculturalization of rural labors,which has caught much research attention,is a necessary phenomenon in the process of urbanization.However,conflicts exsits on some basic issues due to the disagreement on the concept and data of the rural non-agricultural labor force,and there is a lack of systemic and quantitative research on the potentials of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the future.By predicting the changing trend of future rural labor force,the demand for agricultural labors,and the trend of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer,this paper estimated the potentials of Chinese rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the next 20 years.It found that the surplus labors in the countryside will decrease annually,and its total number will range between 100 million and 250 million by 2030.Although there is still some increase potential of the stock of rural labor’s non-agricultural transfer in the near future,its increase will approach to zero in 10 years,and rural transferrable surplus labor will also approach to zero in about 5 to 10 years.

The False Appearance of Lewis Turning Point and the Impact to "Demographic Dividend" Releasing

Liu Huaiyu,Ma Zhong

2011, 35(4):  66-75. 

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By analyzing the macro-economic situation and current research,the authors argue that nationwide labor shortage at present time is the consequence of the "vote with feet" due to the lower actual wage than the reserve wage.It is different to use the unitary model of New Family Economics to analyze the logic reaction of rural migrant labors in facing the social reality from that using the individual economics behavior approach.Rural household invests in its member’s labor capital in order to maximize the household utility and avoid risk in the context without sufficient financing capital and educated human capital.In conclusion,this kind of logic reaction leads to the ineffective releasing of "demographic dividend" in modern manufacture industry and agriculture,and the labor shortage and industrial agriculture which is negative environmental externality.

Study on High-Quality Public Resource Allocation and Population Redistribution in Beijing

Zhao XiuChi

2011, 35(4):  76-85. 

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This paper analyses the relationship between high-quality public resource allocation and population distribution in Beijing,and proposes corresponding suggestions to redistribute population in the Central City.It argues that one of the important factors of migration is that migrants are attracted by the high-quality public resources at the place of destination.The key reason that population is concentrated in the Central City is due to its rich high-quality resources,including educational,health,cultural,sports,and public transport resources.In order to redistribute population more appropriately,it is necessary to take the following measures:(1)deploying high-standard and high-quality public resources in newly-built communities of Beijing by the government with the priority being paid to educational and healthcare resources;(2) strengthen the guiding role of rail transport and reduce the transportation cost of residents of new communities.

Elderly Demands for Long-Term Care and Its Influencing Factors——Based on the Survey of Anhui and Jiangsu

Dai Weidong

2011, 35(4):  86-94. 

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 With the rapid pace of population aging,the elderly long-term care,used to be provided by the family system,has turned into a social problem,which must be addressed now.Using data collected from Anhui and Jiangsu,this paper describes the daily living and health status of the elderly,compares the differences of demands for long-term care,and explores factors associated with the demand.Analytical results indicate that region,education difficulty in taking a bath,hemiplegia,pension,daughter or son-in-law care,hukou registration and childless all have a significant impact on long-term care demands.However,their effect varies by development level: they yield a bigger impact on the needs of long-term care service in less development areas than on more developed areas.Based on these findings,a number of policy recommendations on the improvements of long-term care service system have been proposed.

An Empirical Research on Behavior of Participation in the New Rural Old-Age Insurance System:An Aspect of Confidence Analysis

Wu Yufeng

2011, 35(4):  95-104. 

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Based on the 2010 survey data of 1595 villagers,this article analyzes the influence of confidence on villagers’ participation in the new rural old-age insurance system.The results of factor analysis show that the confidence can be divided into village-confidence and relatives-confidence.The results of logistic analysis find that the village-confidence is good for the villagers’ participation in the system though the mechanism of both internet communication and government propaganda,while the relatives-confidence makes no good for participation in the system.Such findings fill the gap of lack of research on noneconomic factors on participation in the new rural old-age insurance system by providing a theoretical explanation on this issue.

Comprehensive Control of Sex Ratio at Birth:Something to Do,Do Certain Things

Tang Zhaoyun, Ma Lin

2011, 35(4):  105-113. 

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Sex Ratio at Birth in China has exceded the normal range since 1980.While the Communist Party of China,and central and local governments have formulated comprehensive methods in order to curb its rising trend and bring it back to the normal level,the effect is trival.Existing methods tend to focus more on the formulation of laws and regulations prohibiting sex-selective abortion than on supporting strategies,and to pay more attention to the goals and tasks to be achived than to specific ways to implement the goals.In addition,isolated rules and regulations provided by different government branches outweigh more comprehensive rules and regulations.Hence,to more effectively control the sex ratio at birth,the government should adopt the following strategies: further facilitating socioeconomic development,establishing a sound old-age pension system,and improving relevant laws and regulations to curb ultra-sound check and sex-selecctive abortion without medical needs.On the other hand,the government should take no actions on birth planning policy,and on the changes of cultural traditions.