Table of Content

29 November 2008, Volume 32 Issue 6

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Analyzing China’s Fertility Trends Using Cohort Cumulative Fertility

Wang Qian

2008, 32(6):  1-6. 

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This paper examines and compares total fertility rate and cohort cumulative fertility,and discusses the utility of cohort cumulative fertility in analyzing the declining fertility trend in China.The relatively accurate and consistent cohort cumulative fertility data show sustained declining fertility in China in the 1990s,on which estimates are made that China’s total fertility rates in the recent years have dropped to below 1.6 births per woman.

A Preliminary Study of China’s Negative Population Growth Momentum in the 21st Century

Wang Feng, Guo Zhigang, Mao Zhuoyan

2008, 32(6):  7-17. 

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China’s population is at a turning point.By calculating intrinsic rate of natural increase over 1950-2006,this paper shows that the intrinsic rate turned negative in as early as 1990 despite the positive natural increase rate of China’s population.China has been gaining negative population growth momentum as a result of low fertility over the past decade.Population simulations under different scenarios demonstrate major impact of the negative momentum on China’s future size and age structure of population.Policy implications are discussed.