Table of Content

28 May 2013, Volume 37 Issue 3

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Strategic Considerations in Promoting Industrial Transfer and Return Migration in China

Gu Shengzu, Sun Xiangdong, Liu Jiangri

2013, 37(3):  3-10. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (570KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Industrial transfer and return migration have been occurring simultaneously in China．This article describes and examines the changing situation of this new phenomenon．The share of manufacturing sector has been declining in more developed eastern areas which are being transferred to central and west areas，with an increasing return migration to central and west areas．The article argues that this new phenomenon can promote proper division of industry，reduce high social and economic cost of migration of rural workers，and help to build a rational urban system．It is proposed that governments should value and follow the laws of market，and promote the integration of industrial transfer and return migration．Policy suggestions in doing so are discussed．

Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China

Chen Wei, Gao Shuang

2013, 37(3):  11-28. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1929KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper further examines China’s fertility transition by measuring the quantum and tempo of fertility using and comparing various fertility measures，including total fertility rate，tempo－adjusted total fertility rate and intrinsic total fertility rate．The intrinsic total fertility rate developed by McDonald and Kippen controlling simultaneously age，parity and birth intervals，can capture more accurately the quantum and tempo effect in fertility decline．Ｒesults show that quantum effect accounts for more than 70 percent of fertility decline in China in the 1970s，which is decreased to over 60 percent in 1980s，slightly over 50 percent in the 1990s and lower than 50 percent in the 2000s．Tempo effect stood at 0. 2 －0. 4 birth per woman in the 1970s，while very small in the 1980s．In the recent decade，a decline of fertility by 0. 1 － 0. 2 birth per woman is due to tempo effect．

One Decade of the Ｒeform of Social Insurance and Social Protection Policies for Migrants: Evidence from Four Major Cities in China

Guo Fei, Zhang Zhanxin

2013, 37(3):  29-42. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (580KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

China started to implement a series of“new policies on rural migrants”or“rural － urban unified welfare and social protection reform”in early 2000. This paper，based on a study in four large Chinese cities，examines the impacts of these new policies on migrants’participation in a range of social insurance schemes，such as health care，old age pension，unemployment，and work － related injury．The results strongly suggest that after one decade of social policy reform，rural migrant workers’ likelihood of participating in social insurance and protection program is still much lower than that of urban migrants and urban local residents，which indicates the legacy of China’s rural /urban dualistic social welfare system is still in place．Migrant workers’participation in these social insurance and protection schemes is closely related to their employment status，especially to formal employment contract．This study indicates that China has started to integrate its migration policies into its overall economic development strategies．With China’s approaching so － called“Lewis Turning Point”，it is inevitable that labour cost will increase．The increase will not only include higher wages，but also should include the
cost in servicing and maintaining the labour force，including migrant workers，such as the social protection /insurance programs that are jointly contributed by the state，employers and workers．

Personality and ural － urban Migration

Tang Dan

2013, 37(3):  43-50. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (477KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Abstract: ecent studies suggest that personality may be relevant with migration behavior The relationship between personality and rural － urban migration in China is examined in this paper using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2006 ( CGSS) Individuals who had migrated from rural to urban areas，no matter they stayed in the rural or urban area when they were interviewed，were more extroverted and less conscientious than those who had never left rural areas When controlling for age，gender，education and migration experience，the personality trait of neuroticism could predict the migration tendency Findings suggest that personality may be related to rural － urban migration behavior，but the causality between them needs further investigation.

An Alternative Measurement of Population Ageing

Guo Zhenwei, Qi Xianfeng

2013, 37(3):  51-55. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (468KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Abstract: Since the year 2012 saw a turning point of China s working age population，the issue of population ageing has increasingly been attached wide － spread significance to China s economic growth and national development In measuring population ageing，the traditional indicator of percentage aged 65 ( or 60) or over fails to capture the influence on ageing of the increased life expectancy Therefore，new measurement of ageing needs to be considered from the perspective of prospective age by which expected remaining years of life can be taken into account Two indicators，i e ，per-
centage of the elderly with prospective age of 65 or over ( with the year 2000 as reference) and proportion of the elderly with remaining life expectancy below 15 ( inclusive) ，are computed for China over the period from 2000 to 2050 using China s census and survey data and population projections In terms of the new measurement，levels of ageing and dependency ratio in China would be much lower，and the pace of ageing much slower，with the proportion of the elderly in the mid－century being 4－5 percent-
age points less than that from the traditional measurement A comprehensive understanding and thus holistic strategies are necessary to better achieve healthy ageing.

Moderate ural Endowment Insurance and Its Contribution to Improving Social Security

2013, 37(3):  56-70. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1761KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Abstract: One of the keys to improving social security level is to raise rural endowment insurance level The new rural endowment insurance has improved the level of old － age insurance in rural areas and social security for the whole country Largely affected by the limit of the new rural endowment insurance coverage and the below － moderate － level pension payment，the role of rural endowment insurance in improving the level of social security has not been fully realized esults from this study suggest
that in the context of moderate rural old － age insurance level，personal account would increase national pension and social security level by 2. 7% and 1. 48% respectively，personal account and basic pension would increase national pension and social security level by 4. 12% and 2. 96% respectively，and pension insurance and family pension would increase national pension and social security level by 4. 78% and 3. 81% respectively for each year between 2012 to 2050. The moderate level of rural en-
dowment insurance has positive effects on narrowing the urban － rural gap and improving the level of social security.

A Demographic Perspective of the European Debt Crisis and Its Implications for China

Wu Fan

2013, 37(3):  71-81. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1166KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Abstract: The European Debt Crisis is a systemic imbalance among the European population structure，economic structure，welfare structure and political structure In the low fertility trap ，the high degree of aging and heavy dependency ratio fundamentally shake the population basis of welfare socie-
ty，while the European debt crisis expands the impacts of population structural changes from the economic field to the social and political fields European debt crisis is also a warning for China， where demographic，economic and social structural changes have been rapidly undergoing Under the circumstance of multiple challenges resulting from the combined complexity of an aging population，the increasing dependency ratio，slowing economic growth，the threat to middle － income trap，social transformation and reconstruction of social interests relationship， how to learn lessons from the debt crisis and to establish incentive and adaptive social institutions to coping with future population changes would be vital in making strategic choices of social development in China.

Comparative Analysis on the elationship between Population Age Structure and Household Consumption in China

Mao Zhonggen, Sun Wufu, Hong Tao

2013, 37(3):  82-92. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (619KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The aging of population has impacts on the consumption of the aged population By affecting the savings rate，labor supply，labor productivity，economic growth，aging will be indirectly influencing consumer demand The empirical analysis shows that the effect of income on household consumption is significant，that is the lower the income，the greater the propensity of marginal consumption; the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is an important factor in reducing household consumption A comparison of urban and rural areas shows that population aging significantly reduces consumption expenditure of urban residents while the effect for rural residents is not significant; rising child dependency ratio significantly increases consumption expenditure of both urban and rural residents A comparison of eastern，central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of population aging on household consumption is east，central and west areas; the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption is central，west and east areas; while the descending order of the effect of elderly dependency ratio on household consumption is east，central and west areas in China.

Population Dynamics and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study between China and India

Qi Mingzhu

2013, 37(3):  93-101. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (928KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Although China and India share many common characteristics in population and economic development，there are many demographic differences which are affecting economic development to both countries in different ways Applying data of population and economy over past twenty years，this paper conducts an empirical comparative study of population and economic development in the two countries Increase of labor force productivity is the major driving force of economic growth in China，while the increase of labor force productivity combined with the increase of working-age population are the main driving forces in India Moreover，falling labor force utilization has negative contribution to economic growth in both China and India Against the challenges of decreasing labor force size in the future，lowering non-full employment rate and improving labor force utilization could be efficient policy responses under the background of high non-full employment rate and urgent demands of updating industry structure.

An Empirical Study of Fertility Intentions and Fertility Behaviors of ural esidents:The Case of elocated Households in Hunan Province

Qing Shutao, Peng Zhenguo, Xu Shangfeng, Zhang Youliang, Li Zhifang

2013, 37(3):  102-112. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (696KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Drawing up a recent survey data，this paper examines impact on fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of the compensation for demolition and bonus of collective economy in Hunan Province The empirical results demonstrate that，when controlling for age，education，wage and operating income，the bonus of collective economy has significant negative influence on fertility level and fertility desire resulting from gender preference; the compensation for demolition has little influence on the second birth but has significant positive influence on the third birth，and has little influence on the first extra birth but significant positive influence on the second extra birth resulting from gender preference When using the regression estimation results of nlogit model to forecast the extra births resulting from gender preference，an intensifying tendency of fewer-children in families in Hunan Province would be presented in the next decade.