Table of Content

29 January 2022, Volume 46 Issue 1

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Impact of the Transition of Sex Ratio at Birth on Population Ageing in China

Zhang Zhen, Ma Qian

2022, 46(1):  3-18. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (12803KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Since the 1980s, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in China has been abnormally high for more than 40 years, and it might take 30 years to return to normal. The 70year SRB transition profoundly affects the population dynamics. Based on the most recent data on SRB, fertility and mortality, this study focuses on the impact of the SRB transition on the age structure in China. The results show that abnormally high SRB has reduced the number of births and thus the population size, thereby has sped up population ageing. Normalizing SRB can alleviate population ageing. Therefore, normalizing SRB could be taken as one of the strategies to actively cope with population ageing, aside from improving gender inequality.

Estimation of Death Underreporting in Population Censuses and Sample Surveys of China since 1982

Li Cheng, Mi Hong

2022, 46(1):  19-36. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (17680KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper estimates the death underreporting rates in population censuses and sample surveys and their time trend since 1982 through Bayesian hierarchical regression model. While the trend of death underreporting rates at age 0 has distinct phases, the trend of underreporting rates at age 1 to 4 is inconspicuous; distinct phases and similarity also exist in the changes of death underreporting rates over time at all ages, 5-14, 15-59, 60-89, 90 and over. Due to the changing causes of underreporting and social environments at different periods, female death underreporting rates at age 1 to 4 are not necessarily lower than age 0. In censuses, death underreporting rates at different adult ages have large disparities, while those in sample surveys are relatively consistent. Lower mortality rates at age 90 and over in male of 2000 census and in both sexes of 2010 census are caused by serious underreporting. The effect of death underreporting on the calculation error of life expectancy varies with age, and the relationship between the two is weaker under age 5, while the relationships at other ages are significantly positively linearcorrelated.

Destination Selection Mechanism of Migrants in China

Zhou Hao, Liu Wenbo

2022, 46(1):  37-53. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (16475KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and data from relevant statistical yearbooks, this paper uses nested logit model (NLGT) to analyse the destination selection mechanism of floating population in China. This study takes prefecture regions as the basic geographical analysis unit and the flow sample as the research object. The results show significant structural differences between flow sample and stock sample, and heterogeneous effects of the same variables on different samples. The socioeconomic returns that floating population can personally feel play an important role in the destination selection mechanism. The interaction between regional level and individual characteristics shows that regional level characteristics have a heterogeneous effect on the selection mechanism. The paper suggests that focusing on flow or stock samples should be based on the specific study aim of different research questions. Expected socioeconomic return, rather than expected income, is one of the most important factors attracting floating population. The destination selection is a rational and comprehensive decision made by floating population based on individual characteristics and the regional level characteristics of the destination.

Migration History from a Gender Perspective: Based on 1930-1969 Birth Cohorts#br#

Lyu Lidan, Zhao Xiangyu

2022, 46(1):  54-69. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (13787KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Drawing on data from the Life History Survey of CHARLS, this paper analyzes the migration history and gender differences of 1930-1969 birth cohorts in China, and examines the effects of major life events (education, employment, marriage and childbirth) using event history analysis. The results indicate significant cohort and gender differences. Compared with the birth cohorts of 1940-1949 and 1950-1959, cohorts of 1930-1939 and 1960-1969 experienced fewer policy restrictions at age 20-24. Therefore, these cohort groups show higher lifetime completed migration rates and larger gender gap. Education and employment opportunities increase the chances for lifetime migration, while early marriage and childbearing have opposite effects. Employment opportunities increase the chances for multiple migrations for women and narrow the gender gap in migration. Marriage and childbearing reduce the probability of subsequent migration, and divorce increases the probability of migration. The impacts of these three factors are bigger for women than for men.

Fertility Effects of Disaster Events：Historic Experience and Practical Implications

Yuan Xin, Zhang Shengjian

2022, 46(1):  70-81. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (12073KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Throughout human history, every major disaster event has led to fertility fluctuations. This paper explores the general patterns between disaster events and fertility. Firstly, fertility rate decreases in the short cycle during and after the disaster event, rebounds in the medium cycle, and returns to the predisaster ongoing trend in the long cycle. Secondly, in terms of external factors, wider geographical scope of the disaster event, larger scale of affected population, and higher mortality rate are all causing fertility fluctuation more fiercely. Additionally, pandemics and environment related disaster events may have a negative impact on fecundity, leading to a reduction in fertility. Thirdly, in terms of the internal factors, economic development, education level, and the average age of the affected population would change the amplitude of fertility fluctuation, but not the direction of fluctuation. Suggested by these mechanism analysis, COVID19 has reduced the fertility rate by the combined influence of psychological shock of high death toll, economic recession, production shutdown, uncertain future life expectations, and weakened confidence. Keywords：Fertility Fluctuation, Disaster Event, COVID19

“Complementary Substitution” between Family Support and Individual Pension: Theory and Evidence

Mu Huaizhong

2022, 46(1):  82-96. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (14144KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the principle of balanced income distribution, this paper constructs a “complementary substitution” mathematical model for the income distribution of family support and individual pension, and estimates appropriate levels for both family support and individual pension. This paper also studies the optimization of economic structure of family support and individual pension from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results show that: (1) the income distribution of family support and individual pension substitutes each other while they are complementary under the condition of prolonging working age; (2) the equilibrium time point of the replacement of family support and individual pension is 2 children, and the marginal substitution efficiency of family support pension and individual pension decreases; (3) with the increase of life expectancy, the family support income distribution structure changes, the family support coefficient decreases, and the rise of individual pension coefficient is faster than the drop of family support coefficient; (4) the “complementary and substitution” effects between family support and individual pension follow an invertedV curve, and the turning point is close to the replacement level of total fertility rate of 2.1.

Influencing Factors of Chinese Elderly Migrants Residence Intention from the Perspective of Social Integration

Chen Yingzi, Zhao Yugang, Hu Yaqi

2022, 46(1):  97-112. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (13380KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Treating the elderly migrants as a homogeneous group would weaken individual subjective initiative.Therefore, the latent class analysis method is used based on the perspective of social integration to classify the research objects into active integration and passive integration. There is heterogeneity in the preferences of residing willingness. Older people in the category of active integration prefer to choose longterm residence. It is found that the factors affecting the residing willingness of older people who belong to passive integration have increased significantly. Compared with the whole sample, the classified willingness to stay is significantly affected by personal characteristics. To accouont for the higher social integration demand and different residence intention, the government should coordinate the household registration demand and housing security of elderly migrants, actively promote the capacity construction of endowment service, constantly improve the medical security level of elderly migrants, and carry out the demonstration district construction to promote the social integration of elderly migrants.

Effect of City Selection of Labor Employment on Urban Wage Premium

Yang Dongliang, Zheng Ge, Ren Zhichao

2022, 46(1):  113-128. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (13389KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

With the transition of China from a settled society to a migrating one, the rational choice of employment cities by the largescale migrants has a long term impact on the urban wage premium. Meanwhile, urban wage premium also affects labors choice of cities. Using the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2017, this paper built a disposal effect model with endogenous individual choice, and identified the existence of urban wage premium in China. Labors heterogeneity and urban characters had significant impacts on the choice of cities. By controlling the endogenous selection bias, we found that the wage premium of megacity behemoths and megacities became larger, while the large cities premium vanished. Small and medium cities had more competitive wage than large cities. These results, caming from the rational choice of labors, suggest that differentiated development policies should be implementd to realize the overall optimization and internal coordination of the urban system.