Table of Content

29 November 2021, Volume 45 Issue 6

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The Population Thoughts of the Communist Party of China in the Past Century and the Modernization and Chinalization of Marxist Population Theory

Yang Chenggang, Yang Zifan

2021, 45(6):  3-13. 

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The population thoughts of the Communist Party of China over the past century have gone through three major development stages, developing from Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao's population thoughts, Mao Zedong's population thoughts to the population views in the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The population thoughts of the Communist Party of China have stuck to the fundamental positions, viewpoints, and methods of Marxist Population Theory, and adapted to Chinese economic and social contexts. These population thoughts represent the modernization and Chinalization of Marxist Population Theory, and largely influence China's population development. In the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era is the most recent development of the CPC's thoughts on population. The population thoughts of the CPC serve as an important basis for the Chinese demographic research and socialist population theories with Chinese characteristics.

A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth: Connotation, Demographic Characteristics, and Economic Impacts

Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong

2021, 45(6):  14-28. 

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Different from the negative population growth caused by exogenous events in the past, the endogenous negative population growth driven by prolonged life expectancy and long term low fertility will become a new important population phenomenon in the future. Demographically speaking, compared with exogenous negative population growth, the endogenous one tends to accumulate long term negative population growth momentum. Once it happens, it lasts longer, is accompanied by population ageing, and is more difficult to convert back to positive growth. For the economic impacts, both of these two kinds of negative population growth have aggregate effect, but the endogenous negative population growth shows a clearer structural effect, a more stable expectation effect, and a long-swing effect which differs from the exogenous one. The looming endogenous negative population growth is not necessarily negative, but may have positive effects. The focus is how to seize the response window period and give full play to the positive effects on the basis of eliminating the negative effects of negative population growth.

The Influence of Natural Disaster Shocks on Rural Labor Migration and Governments Reaction in China

Sheng Yinan, Yang Xuyu

2021, 45(6):  29-44. 

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Using the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the influence of natural disasters on rural labor migration. The results show that natural disasters significantly increase the probability of rural labor outmigration. The impacts of different natural disasters, including floods, droughts, and other disasters, differ across regions. Natural disasters affect labor migration by increasing household agricultural income loss, credit demand, and aggregating relative poverty. Further analysis indicates that the implementation of disaster relief and reconstruction policies and the support from clan networks provide safeguards to resist disasters and reduce the possibility of labor outflow. In the face of violent natural disasters that families can hardly withstand, the policies are more effective. This study explores the effect of natural disasters on population migration in China, and provides suggestions for implementing population management policies and building a modernized natural disaster prevention government system.

Macrolevel Social Factors and Ideal Number of Children in China#br#

Yu Jia, Zhou Yang, Xie Yu

2021, 45(6):  45-61. 

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Reflecting collective norms towards childbearing at the societal level, the ideal number of children helps us project a society’s long  term fertility trend. Comparing China and other selected countries, our study shows that the average ideal number of children among women aged 18 to 49 is much lower in China than in other countries. We also observe relatively high one child and low 3 or more children ideals in China. Capitalizing on data from China Family Panel Studies, prefectural yearbooks, and digital map, we examine the effects of contextual factors on the ideal number of children in China. Results show that higher economic development level, higher income inequality level, lower total fertility rate, and higher educational competition level all lead to smaller ideal number of children. A mediation analysis reveals that contextual fertility level and educational pressure are important in shaping Chinese people’s ideal number of children. Our study suggests that fertility attitudes should be understood by taking historical and cultural contexts into account.

Post-transitional Fertility: Differentials and Determinants 

Chen Jiaju

2021, 45(6):  62-80. 

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While post-transitional societies have below replacement fertility, differentials exist with the lowest hovering around 1.0 and the highest remaining around replacement level. At present, the total fertility rate of 70% post-transitional countries (regions) is 1.5 and above, and only 8 countries (regions) have total fertility below 1.3. The differences of current social and economic development cannot fully explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level, and the answer need to be found from the historical process of social transition. Under the guidance of Ogben’s culture lag theory, this study proposes two concepts. One is the “Gender Equality Dilemma” and the other is the “Marriage and Fertility Cultural Conflict Dilemma”. These two concepts can basically explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level. China has now already been faced with these two “Dilemma”. In order to cope with the risk of low fertility, it is urgent to incorporate the concept of gender equality into the design of various public policies and realize the inclusiveness of fertility policies in an all-round and multi-level way.

Early Childhood Health Investments and Educational Performance in Later Stage: Taking Breastfeeding as an Example#br#

Song Yueping, Zhao Yi

2021, 45(6):  81-95. 

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Early life is a window of opportunity for growth and development, and health conditions in the early years provide the building blocks for future development. Previous studies have shown that breastfeeding is one of the most effective ways to ensure child health and survival. Based on the theories of Early Childhood Development and Human Capital, Cumulative Health Advantage, and Education Production Function, this study looks into the impact of breastfeeding on children's long term educational performance. We also explore the mechanism using the second, third, and fourth wave China Educational Panel Survey (CEPS) data. Propensity Score Matching method is used to control the possible endogenous problems of the model. We find that breastfeeding has a significant positive effect on children's long term educational performance. Different durations of breastfeeding have different effects on educational performance. Health status at an early age and cognitive ability are the mediating factors that breastfeeding affects the educational performance.

Changing Effects of Educational Attainment on Divorce in China

Guo Yunwei

2021, 45(6):  96-109. 

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Drawing upon data from the baseline survey of China Family Panel Studies 2010, this paper analyzes the effect of educational attainment on divorce, and explores whether the effect of education has changed with the expansion of higher education. The results show that, for the cohorts born before 1960, the increase of women's education level significantly increased the risk of divorce, while the increase of men's education level did not increase the risk of divorce. The gender specific effect of education level on divorce changed for the 1980 and later birth cohorts, where the increased education level did not significantly increase the risk of divorce for women, while the increase of education level decreased the divorce risk for men. These results suggest that the impact of education level on intimate relationships such as divorce will change with the progress of social change.

Forecasting the Population Size of the Disabled Older People and Their Care Time Needs#br#

Zhang Yuan, Wang Wei

2021, 45(6):  110-125. 

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China's disabled and semi-disabled elderly population has grown rapidly and its distribution between urban and rural areas is uneven. Utilizing the 2011 and 2014 CLHLS data, this paper introduces the measurement of transition intensity to construct the health state transition probability matrix, and predict the population size of disabled elderly and the care time needs by urban and rural areas. The main conclusions are: (1) The probability of urban and rural older people with moderate and severe disability will increase with age and deterioration of initial health. (2) In 2050, the population of moderately and severely disabled aged 65 and above will reach over 83 million, which is about 3 times that in 2020. The ratio of the number of moderately disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in urban over rural areas has increased from 2.04 in 2020 to 7.77 in 2050. 2020-2040, the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 75 to 84 in rural areas will always be higher than that in urban areas. In 2020, the ratio of the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in rural over urban areas will reach peaks of 1.74 and 2.38 respectively. (3) The average duration time of moderate disability of older people aged 65 to 74 in urban areas is 1.34 times that in rural areas, and the average duration time of the severe disability of older people in the same age group is 1.28 times that in urban areas.