Table of Content

29 September 2021, Volume 45 Issue 5

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Exploration and Practice of China's Population Development by the Communist Party of China

Wang Peian

2021, 45(5):  3-9. 

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The population thinking and practice of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a crucial part of the history of the CPC, the history of New China, the history of reform and opening-up, and the history of socialism development. Among the thinking and practice, the implementation of family planning is a major strategic decision based on the nation's fundamental realities with large population and relatively insufficient resources. It is also an important chapter of the one hundred year of glorious history of the CPC. In order to understand and grasp China's population situation in the new period with the significant changes of population development and the gradual adjustment and improvement of the fertility policy, especially the implementation of the threechild policy and its supporting measures, we should especially attach great importance to the research of population development strategies, strengthen the research on fertility patterns and related influencing factors under the new social and economic environment, enhance the research on national strategies for positive response to population ageing, increase the research on population migration and social integration, consolidate the research on profound impact of scientific and technological progress on population development, and reinforce the study on connotation and realization of the basic state policy of family planning in the new era.

A Study on the Centennial Population Thoughts of the Communist Party of China

Wang Qinchi, He Dan, Zhang Xuying, Zhang Li

2021, 45(5):  10-21. 

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Since its founding, the CPC has lead a path of population development with Chinese characteristics in the past century, a period with revolution, construction, and reform, and formed the CPC's population thought. The CPC's population thought originated from the Marxist population thought. It sprouted during the new democratic revolution period, and gradually formed along with socialist revolution and construction. It was continuously improved in the new period of reform and opening up. It then keeps developing. The CPC's population thought systematically solves the big issue of how to achieve a comprehensive development for people in a country with a huge population like China. It is about the laws, functions, goals, concepts, methods, and guarantees of population development. This systematic and rigorous system is scientific, peoplecentered, practical, open, and national. This population thought is also the fundamental guarantee for the historic achievements of China's population development, and the scientific guide for promoting the greater achievements for China in the new era.

Implications of “Unexpected” Data from the 7th Population Census for Floating Population Survey

Wang Qian

2021, 45(5):  22-25. 

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Practice and Experience of the 7th Population Census: How to Ensure and Improve Data Quality？

Li Rui, Liu Hui, Zhang Qiang, Quan Shaowei, and Li Shu

2021, 45(5):  26-32. 

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Human Capital Dividend and Its Spatial Effects in China

Dai Qiongyao, Liu Jiaqiang, Tang Daisheng

2021, 45(5):  33-48. 

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The effect of population size advantage on economic growth has gradually weakened in China, while human capital dividend starts to be a new engine for China's economic growth. This paper discusses human capital dividend and its spatial effects on China's economic growth. The results show that human capital contributes more to regional economic growth than population size. One city's health human capital has a significant “competitive effect” on its neighbors' economic growth, while educational human capital shows a “spillover effect”. Both types of human capital show spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, with a longer distance between two cities, the competitive effect and the spillover effect is stronger for the health and educational human capital, respectively. However, their marginal effects diminish, supporting the hypothesis of “distance attenuation”. This paper proposes that, by improving national educational capital and health capital, we can achieve a shift in economic growth from a reliance on the population size to human capital dividend. We should implement different spatial investment strategies for educational capital and health capital.

Social Participation Patterns and Its Influence on Social Adaptation of Chinese Older Adults

Xie Lili, Wang Fei, Hu Kang

2021, 45(5):  49-63. 

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This study uses data from the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey to explore patterns of older adults' social engagement by latent class analysis. Based on their participation in personal life domain (i.e. learning and communication, personal recreation, working, and volunteering) and family life domain (i.e. caring for parents, caring for grandchildren, and caring for children), four patterns are discovered, including Personal-Family Balanced Activity (P-F), PersonalCentered Activity (P-C), Family-Centered Activity (F-C), and Low Activity. Linear regression analysis reveals that Low Activity are associated with the lowest social adaptation, followed by F-C Activity, while P-C and P-F Activity achieved the best scores and showed no statistical difference. Moreover, urban-rural differences are found in the relationships between social participation patterns and social adaptation. The results suggest that we should protect the social participation rights of older adults, enrich the ways and contents of social participation, and balance their personal life with family life to enhance their abilities to adapt to the social development and changes.

Child Care and the Desire to Have the Second Child

Li Wanxin, Yang Xiaojun, Yang Xueyan

2021, 45(5):  64-78. 

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In the context of the universal two-child policy, this paper investigates the impact of grandparent care and formal childcare on fertility desire of secondchild based on the national fertility survey conducted in 2017. Using binary logistic regression and propensity score matching methods, we find that both of the two childcare modes have significant effects on the fertility desire of secondchild but their influencing directions are opposite: the grandparent care significantly increases the propensity to have the second child, while the formal childcare has a negative impact. Further study shows that the number of kindergartens per capita in prefecturelevel cities plays a positive moderating effect, weakening the role of formal childcare in reducing the fertility desire, while the average childcare costs in prefecturelevel cities play a negative moderating effect, strengthening the negative effect of formal childcare on fertility desire of the second child. Therefore, this paper suggests that increasing the supply of affordable public childcare services is the most effective policy to increase the fertility desire to have a second child.

A Study on Living Security and Supply Framework for the Older Adults in Poverty Alleviation Resettlement Areas

Wang Wulin, Feng Haoming, Ji Geng

2021, 45(5):  79-90. 

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Relocation for poverty alleviation proves to be a successful strategy in the battle against poverty. People in the resettlement areas in Guizhou have achieved the goal of “two solved worries and three guarantees”, while the lack of oldage security has increasingly become prominent. Based on Amartya Sen's feasible ability theory, this paper uses the fuzzy mathematical method to measure and analyze the level of oldage security for the older adults in resettlement areas from four dimensions: economic security, health security, daily care security, and mental health security. Results show that the overall security level is relatively qualified. However, there are still problems in social integration, daily care, health expenditure, and work situation of older adults. To improve old-age security in resettlement areas, we need to help the older adults in resettlement areas achieve economic and health security, obtain access to daily care security and mental health security. We also need to clarify the principles and paths of oldage security supply in resettlement areas, and construct a framework of oldage security supply in resettlement areas for poverty alleviation.

Impacts of Children's Gender and Living Arrangements on Chinese Older Adults Support from Friend Networks

Zhao Menghan, Yang Fan

2021, 45(5):  91-103. 

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Using data from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey conducted in 2016, this study examines the influence of children's gender and living arrangements on Chinese older adults' friend network support under the framework of gendered double embeddedness. The results show that having no son negatively affects older men's, but not older women's, friend network support. Comparing to living with a partner only, co-residing with partner and son(s) is positively associated with friend network support for older men. The impacts of living arrangements vary across urban/rural areas and different regions. This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between family structure, living arrangements, and older adults' social support, and helps us recognize the most socially isolated older adults who might need more support.

Population Ageing and Medical Expenses Increase

Yue Zhang, Qin Xigang

2021, 45(5):  104-116. 

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This study investigates the causes of increasing medical costs from the aspects of concentration and persistence. Counterfactual calculation shows that population ageing increases medical expenses at different subpoints and narrows the distribution gap of medical expenses, which are caused by the high concentration and persistence of medical expenses of the older population. The medical cost of the older population is not only characterized by a high amount of single hospitalization cost, a large proportion of continuous hospitalization, and a strong dispersion of medical cost, but also induces a heavier burden in all of the five levels of medical cost. The influence of population ageing to the increase of medical costs is lower than that of the change of the whole population age structure. The influence of endowment effect increases with time, and the medical costs of high percentiles increase the most. In addition, the improvement of health awareness plays a dominant role in the structural effects that affect the growth of medical costs. The theoretical framework constructed in this study which describes how the medical demand of the aged population affects the medical cost can explain the reality of the rapid growth of medical cost under the background of population ageing in China.

The Influence of Population Ageing on the Development of Dongguan's Manufacturing Industry: Transformation from “World Factory” to “Intelligent Manufacturing”

Fang Wen

2021, 45(5):  117-128. 

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China has the largest population and the largest scale of manufacturing. Population ageing influences Chinas development from various aspects. The transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry will evolve with the rapid ageing process. Drawing on the new structural economics, this paper suggests that population ageing leads to a labor endowment change. Affected by the ageing labor structure and the diversified employment demands, the traditional comparative advantage gradually weakens. Therefore, the manufacturing industry is expected to move outward. However, the largescale industrial relocation at this stage is not conducive to maintaining the integrity of the industrial chain or keeping the employment rate in a country with a large population, especially for the older migrant workers. Instead of the industrial relocating that the developed countries or regions had adopted, the local industrial transformation and upgrading is more suitable for China. This could be learned through the practical experience of Dongguans manufacturing.