关键词: 人口转变, 第一次人口转变, 第二次人口转变, 第三次人口转变

Abstract: "Demographic Transition",which was first proposed in 1929 by the Warren Thompson,is a model depicting population changes,or transitions in birth and death rates over time in industrialized societies,and the theory of Demographic Transition becomes one of the most important theories in demography.In the late 1980s,Van de Kaa & Lesthaeghe put forward "Second Demographic Transition"(SDT) to describe population,marriage and family change and low fertility since World War Two in Western European countries.In less than a decade,Coleman suggested the "third Demographic Transition"(TDT) to interpret the change of ethnic structure caused by low fertility rate and high immigration rate in Western countries.While the demographers who invented the new concepts SDT and TDT did very enlightening and valuable work,it seems to be inappropriate to use "Demographic Transition" to describe all the new developments in population.

Keywords: Demographic Transition, First Demographic Transition, Second Demographic Transition, Third Demographic Transition