人口老龄化是否加剧收入不平等?——基于中国(1996～2009)的实证研究

人口研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 94-103.

人口老龄化是否加剧收入不平等?——基于中国(1996～2009)的实证研究

董志强¹，魏下海²，汤灿晴³

1 华南师范大学华南市场经济研究中心，广州 510006； 2 华南师范大学经济与管理学院，广州 510006；3 广东商学院经济贸易与统计学院，广州 510006

出版日期:2012-09-29 发布日期:2013-02-01
通讯作者: dongzhiqiang163@163．com
作者简介:1 教授、博导、经济与管理学院副院长，华南师范大学华南市场经济研究中心；2 副教授，华南师范大学经济与管理学院；3 讲师，广东商学院经济贸易与统计学院
基金资助:
本文受广东省人文社科重点研究基地重大项目( 编号06ZDXM790008) 、广东省高校学科建设创新团队重大项目( 编号051500020100925) 、教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目( 编号11YJC790202) 、广东省哲社“十一五”规划学科共建项目( GD10XYJ12) 的研究资助。

Does Population Ageing Aggravate Income Inequality? Evidence from China 1996-2009

Dong Zhiqiang¹, Wei Xiahai², Tang Canqing³

1 School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006; 2 School of Economics and management,South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006; 3 Tang Canqing is Lecturer,School of Economic Trade and Statistics,Guangdong Commercial College, Guangzhou 510006

Online:2012-09-29 Published:2013-02-01
Contact: dongzhiqiang163@163．com
About author:1 Professor and Vice Dean,School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University; 2 Associate Professor,School of Economics and management,South China Normal University; 3 Lecturer,School of Economic Trade and Statistics,Guangdong Commercial College

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 不同年龄群体内部的收入程度通常存在差异,因而人口年龄结构变迁会影响整个经济的收入不平等程度。文章建立了一个(统计性)分析框架,刻画出老龄化导致收入不平等加剧的条件,并从经济理论和经验证据上说明该条件在中国成立,从而提出假说:中国的老龄化加剧了经济中的收入不平等。运用1996～2009年省级面板数据,以基尼系数衡量收入不平等,从经验上证实老龄化(老年抚养比上升和少儿抚养比下降)对我国收入不平等有显著的正向影响。这一结论表明,研究收入不平等问题时,应注意老龄化这一长期被研究者们忽视的因素,因为它蕴含着与其他因素大不相同的政策含义。

Abstract:
Since inequality differs cross population groups，changing population age structure may
have an effect on overall income inequality．This paper develops an analytical ( statistical) model to describe conditions under which population ageing could aggravate income inequality，and show theoretically and empirically that the conditions are true in China．Thus，it is hypothesized that population ageing aggravates inequality in China．With Gini coefficient as measurement of income inequality，and employing provincial level panel data over 1996 － 2009，this paper confirms that population ageing ( i．e．an increasing aged dependency ratio and a decreasing child dependency ratio) is a positive and significant factor contributing to income inequality．This suggests that inequality studies need to incorporate
population ageing，as it conveys different policy implications as compared to other factors．

Keywords: Population Ageing, Income Inequality, Age Structure

董志强，魏下海，汤灿晴. 人口老龄化是否加剧收入不平等?——基于中国(1996～2009)的实证研究[J]. 人口研究, 2012, 36(5): 94-103.

Dong Zhiqiang, Wei Xiahai, Tang Canqing. Does Population Ageing Aggravate Income Inequality? Evidence from China 1996-2009[J]. Population Research, 2012, 36(5): 94-103.