关键词: 乡城流动, 返乡潮, 用工荒, 返乡行为, 返乡打算

Abstract: China has witnessed great volumes of migrant workers returning hometown in the past decade. Meanwhile, an increasing number of cities, especially the major migrant-receiving cities, started to encounter severe labor shortage. This study investigates whether the recent returning flows have selected migrants of higher human capital and thus contributed to a significant loss of human capital in those traditional hosting areas. The results suggest that migrants with higher education have been less likely to return hometown, and they remain so even today. Nevertheless, male migrants having agricultural working skills are increasingly more likely to return hometown recently. Yet, the impact of health condition on returning decision is rather complex. There have always been migrants with deteriorated health condition returning home. This study concludes that migrant workers make their decision to return or not return rationally according to their human capital and comparative advantage. To date, the returning flows of migrants have not resulted in a significant loss of human capital, albeit it might have contributed significantly to labor shortage, in many cities.

Keywords: Rural-Urban Migration, Returning Flow, Labor Shortage, Returning Behavior, Returning Plan