关键词: 经济社会发展, 低生育率, 人类发展指数, 总和生育率

Abstract: There is a universal trend of declining fertility since 1970s in virtually all countries of the world despite their large differences in the levels of fertility. This trend is likely to continue in the future and fertility rates of the countries are predicted to convergence to replacement level by the end of this century. Cross-country data indicate that a higher level of economic and social development leads to a lower level of fertility. Given HDI representing a country’s economic and social development level, statistical estimations based on data of 109 countries with over 5 million people in 2010 demonstrate a strong reverse relationship between HDI and TFR among the countries: an increase in HDI is associated a corresponding decrease in TFR; and when HDI is greater than 0.71, TFR drops to below replacement level. This relationship can be explained by an array of interplays of economic and social factors, among which a significant linkage is with the variable of urbanization.

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