人口研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 52-59.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

全面两孩政策对我国人口总量结构的影响分析

李桂芝1崔红艳2严伏林3权少伟4   

  1. 1 国家统计局人口和就业统计司专项调查处;2/3/4 国家统计局人口和就业统计司
  • 出版日期:2016-07-29 发布日期:2016-09-23
  • 作者简介:李桂芝,国家统计局人口和就业统计司专项调查处副处长; 崔红艳、严伏林、权少伟, 国家统计局人口和就业统计司。
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金重大项目“全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究”(15ZDC036)资助

Impactof the Two-Child Policy on China’s Population

LI Guizhi1,Cui Hongyan2,Yan Fulin3,Quan Shaowei4   

  1. 1 Division of Special Survey,Department of Population and Employment,National Bureau of Statistics of China;2/3/4 Department of Population and Employment,National Bureau of Statistics of China
  • Online:2016-07-29 Published:2016-09-23
  • About author:Li Guizhi is Deputy Director,Division of Special Survey,Department of Population and Employment, National Bureau of Statistics of China,China.Cui Hongyan,Yan Fulin,and Quan Shaowei,Department of Population and Employment,National Bureau of Statistics of China.

摘要:

文章利用2014年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据,按层次递进的方式,分析当前我国育龄夫妇类型和生育状况,得出单独两孩政策目标人群和全面两孩政策的目标人群及年龄构成,利用分类型分年龄的生育意愿数据,分析单独两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口的影响、全面两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口以及未来我国劳动年龄人口等人口结构的影响。文章认为,单独两孩政策对出生人口的增加影响有限,全面两孩政策实施后出生人口较多的几年,大约相当于上世纪八、九十年代出生人口较少的年份,之后,预计出生人口将会逐步减少并趋于稳定;总人口峰值出现年份略有后推,峰值数量稍有增加;该政策对今后我国人口年龄结构的优化、促进出生人口性别比平衡可以起到积极作用。 

关键词: 生育政策, 生育意愿, 单独夫妇, 非独夫妇, 出生人口

Abstract:

Based on data from the 2014 annual population change survey,this paper provides estimates of number and structure of the target couples of the selective and universal two-child policy,and conducts prediction of number of births and working age population under the two-child policy.The selective two-child policy has only limited effect on number of births,while the largest annual number of births under the universal two-child policy is roughly similar to the average annual number of births occurred in the 1980s to 1990s.Long-term decline in annual number of births is expected under the universal two-child policy.The universal two-child policy will somewhat postpone the time of China’s peak population which will be slightly larger.The universal two-child policy will have positive effect on optimizing China’s population structure and balancing its sex structure.

Keywords:  Fertility Policy, Fertility Desire, Couples One of Which Has No Sibling, Couples with Siblings, Number of Births