关键词: 全面两孩政策, 人口老龄化, 家庭养老

Abstract:

Multiple-model projections of China’s population change in the 21st century suggest that the universal two-child policy implemented in 2016 macroscopically would have much larger effect on alleviating China’s old-age dependency ratio than on alleviating the old-age coefficient．Despite that the opportunity window of China’s demographic dividend would close in around 2030，the universal two-child policy could reduce China’s general age dependency ratio in the latter half of the 21st century， which helps to balance the long-term population development．On the other hand，the universal two- child policy would microscopically have great effect on enhancing family care for the elderly in China， and helps to increase the share of the ‘422’type of families，to strengthen family care when many one-child parents become the very old after 2040，and to avoid the risk of death and disability of policy- related only children．

Keywords:  Universal Two-Child Policy, Population Ageing, Family Care for the Elderly