关键词: 人口老龄化, 劳动力, 有效劳动, 劳动参与率, 可计算一般均衡分析

Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of population aging for labor supply and economic growth in future China. We particularly introduce an indicator of labor supply-effective labor-which takes into account the differences on labor productivity across age groups. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium ( CGE) model，we simulate four scenarios with various labor supply assumptions，and compare their effects on the change of factor labor price，economic output，and industrial structure. Our results show that total effective labor supply in China is expected to peak in 2017 and then start to decline. The falling speed would be faster and more volatile than that of total population and total labor force. In the scenario of effective labor supply，the growth rate of GDP in China in the first half of this century will decline faster and fluctuate greater than that in the other scenarios where labor supply is assumed to be affected by the development of total population or total labor force. If labor supply is assumed to be determined only by the dynamics of working-age population，the future economic growth may be underestimated. Our study suggests that the heterogeneity of labor efficiency of age groups should not be neglected when we assess labor supply，such that we can avoid misjudging future economic growth and industrial structure change.

Keywords:  Population Aging, Labor Force, Effective Labor, Labor Force Participation Rate, Computable General Equilibrium Analysis