人口研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 99-112.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

利用DCMD模型生命表系统对六普数据中死亡漏报的估计

李 成1,米 红2,孙凌雪3   

  1. 李成浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生米红通讯作者),浙江大学公共管理学院教授浙江大学人口与发展研究所执行所长孙凌雪浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生
  • 出版日期:2018-03-29 发布日期:2018-05-18
  • 作者简介:李成,浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生;米红(通讯作者),浙江大学公共管理学院教授、浙江大学人口与发展研究所执行所长;孙凌雪,浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家自然科学基金重大项目71490732和浙江省自然科学基金重点项目LZ13G030001的资助

The Estimation of Death Underreporting in the 2010 Population Census Based on DCMD Model Life Tables

Li Cheng1,Mi Hong2 and Sun Lingxue3   

  1. Li Cheng is PhD CandidateSchool of Public AffairsZhejiang UniversityMi Hong is ProfessorSchool of Public AffairsInstitute of Population and Development StudiesZhejiang UniversityE?mailspsswork@ 163.comSun Lingxue is PhD CandidateSchool of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University.
  • Online:2018-03-29 Published:2018-05-18
  • About author:Li Cheng is PhD Candidate,School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University;Mi Hong is Professor,School of Public Affairs,Institute of Population and Development Studies,Zhejiang University,E?mail:spsswork@ 163.com;Sun Lingxue is PhD Candidate,School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University.

摘要: 低龄死亡概率和老龄死亡概率对估计 岁和 60 岁预期寿命有特殊意义直接关系到计算结果的准确性且涉及养老保险等一系列政策的制定众多研究表明六普数据中低龄组与老龄组死亡数据存在明显漏报并且给出了不同的修正方法以及相应的结果文章利用 DCMD 模型生命表系统根据六普数据中 60~75 岁的分性别人口数计算出老龄死亡率结合 UNICEF 的儿童死亡率和 IHME 的成人死亡率数据六普时期我国分性别的国民生命表进行重建重新计算了 岁和60 岁的预期寿命并在此基础上估计了低龄组和老龄组死亡数据的漏报程度结果表明,“六普期我国婴儿死亡率男性为 16.41‰女性为 15.94‰相应的漏报水平为 77.3%75.5%老龄死亡概率60~89 男性 0.703女性 0.595相应的漏报水平为2.3%7.0%

关键词:  死亡漏报, 模型生命表, 死亡模式, 人口普查

Abstract: Young?age and old?age death probabilities are essential for accurate estimation of life expectancy at age and 60,which have major implications for the formulation of endowment insurance and other policies.Previous studies have testified that death underreporting commonly exists in the mortality data of young?age and old?age groupsuch that various approaches of modification were offered.This paper recalculated sex?specific life tables of China and life expectancy at age and 60 for the 2010 population census based on the DCMD model life tablesusing child mortality data from UNICEFadult mortality information from IHMEand old?age mortality rates derived from the sex?specific population aged 60 75 in the census.The underreporting rates of young?age and old?age mortality are estimated.The result shows that in the 2010 population census adjusted infant mortality rates are 1641‰ for male and 1594‰ for femaleimplying an underreporting rate of 77% and 75% respectivelythe adjusted old?age from 60 to 89) death probabilities are 703 for male and 595 for female with the underreporting rate being % and % respectively.

Keywords: Death Underreporting, Model Life Table, Age Pattern of Mortality, Population Census