人口研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 84-98.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

 前瞻年龄视角下的人口老龄化及其对我国医疗费用的影响

杨 昕1,左学金2,王美凤3   

  1. 杨昕上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所副研究员左学金上海社会科学院经济研究所研究员王美凤上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心助理研究员
  • 出版日期:2018-03-29 发布日期:2018-05-18
  • 作者简介:杨昕,上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所副研究员;左学金,上海社会科学院经济研究所研究员;王美凤,上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心助理研究员。
  • 基金资助:
    本文为国家自然科学基金重大项目公平活力与可持续— — —老龄化社会的经济特征及支持体系研究” (71490734的阶段性成果

Population Ageing and Its Effect on Total Health Expenditure:A Prospective Age Perspective

Yang Xin1,Zuo Xuejin2 and Wang Meifeng3   

  1. Population Ageing,Chronological Age,Prospective Age,Total Health Expenditure Authors:Yang Xin is Associate Professor, Institute of Urban & Population Development Studies,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Zuo Xuejin is Professor, Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Wang Meifeng is Research Associate,Shanghai Health Development Research Center.yangxin@ sass.org.cn
  • Online:2018-03-29 Published:2018-05-18
  • About author:Population Ageing,Chronological Age,Prospective Age,Total Health Expenditure Authors:Yang Xin is Associate Professor, Institute of Urban & Population Development Studies,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Zuo Xuejin is Professor, Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences; Wang Meifeng is Research Associate,Shanghai Health Development Research Center.yangxin@ sass.org.cn

摘要: 随着人口平均预期寿命的不断延长静态的研究视角有可能夸大了人口老龄化的负面影响文章通过日历年龄和前瞻年龄的不同视角预测了我国 2010 ~ 2050 年的人口老龄化发展趋并据此测算了不同视角下老年人口的卫生费用结果表明在前瞻年龄的视角下我国未来的人口老龄化速度较日历年龄视角下的人口老龄化速度明显放缓且老年人口的卫生费用也将大幅降低这一研究结论的社会经济含义有二一是前瞻年龄下劳动年龄人口和老年人口比会发生变化二是年龄别医疗费用取决于前瞻年龄将会节约医疗费用要使这两种社会经济含义的价值得以实现必须要从社会政策的改革入手如鼓励延迟退休年龄、转变卫生服务理念以及改革卫生服务体系等

关键词: 人口老龄化, 日历年龄, 前瞻年龄, 卫生总费用

Abstract: With the continuous extension of life expectancythe negative impact of population ageing may be exaggerated by using a static age perspective.In this paperwe try to forecast the population ageing trend of China under different age criteria in 2010-2050 and analyze their effects on total health expenditure.The results show that ageing rate measured with prospective age would be much lower than that measured with chronological age and the health expenditure for the elderly would be considerably reduced.The implications are that the ratio of labor force to the elderly population would changewhich would reduce health expenditure.Howeverin achieving thatit is necessary to promote the relevant social policies such as encouraging the postponement of retirement agechanging the concept of health serviceand reforming the health service system.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Chronological Age, Prospective Age, Total Health Expenditure