人口研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 3-18.

• 人口理论 •    下一篇

经济发展中的人口回旋空间:存在性和理论架构

王金营1,刘艳华2   

  1. 王金营1,河北大学经济学院;刘艳华2,河北大学经济学院。
  • 出版日期:2020-01-29 发布日期:2020-02-23
  • 作者简介:王金营,河北大学经济学院教授;刘艳华,河北大学经济学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    本文是国家社会科学基金项目“中国实现经济发展的人口回旋空间及其作用研究”(19ARK002)的阶段性成果。

Population Cushion in Economic Development: Existence and Theoretical Framework

Wang Jinying1, Liu Yanhua2   

  1. Wang Jinying1,College of Economics,Hebei University; Liu Yanhua2, College of Economics,Hebei University.
  • Online:2020-01-29 Published:2020-02-23
  • About author:Wang Jinying is Professor,College of Economics,Hebei University; Liu Yanhua is PhD Candidate, College of Economics,Hebei University.

摘要: 中国人口发展到21世纪的第3个十年将达到最大规模,在持续低生育率下未来人口将持续负增长和走向深度老龄化。这意味着未来经济发展面临来自人口负增长的各种挑战。为促进经济持续增长和发展,需要人口经济学理论做出新的认识和判断,并为进一步科学探索经济发展的动力和途径提供理论依据。在此背景下,梳理人口与经济发展关系理论的演进史和实证分析的进展,反思已有人口与经济理论的局限性,借鉴已有相关理论给予的启示和隐喻,重新认识人口与经济发展之间的关系,初步论证人口规模在经济发展中回旋空间的存在性及其作用,提出人口回旋空间的概念和理论框架,并指出中国未来人口负增长下经济发展可利用的新动力和新途径。

关键词: 人口规模, 人口结构, 人口回旋空间, 经济发展

Abstract: China's population will start to drop and age rapidly in the third decade of the 21st century. This negative population growth brings various challenges to China's future economic development. To sustain the economic growth and development, it is necessary to explore theoretical basis for the driving forces and new paths for further economic development. Reflecting on the limitations of existing theories of population and economic development and drawing on their enlightenments and metaphors, this research demonstrates how population size interacts with economic development. Further, this study proposes the concept and theoretical framework of population cushion, which can act as a new driving force of Chinas economic development in the context of negative population growth in the future.

Keywords: Population Size, Population Structure, Population Cushion, Economic Development