关键词: 人口调控, 政策效果, 三重差分法

Abstract: Since 2015, the implementation of “The Outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Plan” has led to a new thinking of Beijing's population regulations in the new era, based on the measures of relocating non-capital functions of Beijing, promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and driving population decentralization through functional decentralization. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Beijing's population regulation policy since 2015 by using the quasi-natural experiment of difference-in-differences-in-differences estimation. This paper finds that the implementation of Beijing's population regulation policies is negatively correlated with the size of permanent residents, and the policies effectively reduce the population of permanent residents by 11.6% compared to the case without the new polices. The policy effect becomes significant after 2017 and increases year by year. Further analysis suggests that because the 2020 population planning target has been basically achieved, the population regulation targeted at scale control needs to be adjusted. Under the framework of comprehensive optimization objectives, space optimization and quality improvements of population should be carried out in next step.

Keywords: Population Regulation, Policy Effect, Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences Estimation