人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 3-18.

• 人口政策研究 •    下一篇

人口预期寿命延长、养老金保障风险与政策回应

穆怀中1,范璐璐2,陈曦3   

  1. 穆怀中1,辽宁大学公共管理学院、人口研究所;范璐璐2,辽宁大学公共管理学院;陈曦3(通讯作者),辽宁大学公共管理学院、人口研究所。
  • 出版日期:2021-01-29 发布日期:2021-02-05
  • 作者简介:穆怀中,辽宁大学公共管理学院、人口研究所教授;范璐璐,辽宁大学公共管理学院博士研究生;陈曦(通讯作者),辽宁大学公共管理学院、人口研究所副教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本文为国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“城乡基础养老保险缴费率一元化适度水平及其实现路径”(19FRKB001)和国家自然科学基金重点项目“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(71731007)的阶段性研究成果。

Increasing Life Expectancy, Pension Risks, and Policy Responses

Mu Huaizhong1,Fan Lulu2,Chen Xi3   

  1. Mu Huaizhong1, School of Public Administration and Institute of Population Research, Liaoning University; Fan Lulu2, School of Public Administration, Liaoning University; Chen Xi3 (Corresponding Author), School of Public Administration and Institute of Population Research, Liaoning University.
  • Online:2021-01-29 Published:2021-02-05

摘要: 保障老年人口退休期基本生活需求是养老保险制度核心功能,也是“后疫情时期”提振消费的重要举措。预期寿命延长趋势下,退休期养老金保障风险以及在养老保险生命周期精算平衡约束下的政策回应是“后疫情时期”提高民生福利和提振消费面临的关键问题。研究发现,预期寿命延长会导致养老金社会平均工资替代率下降程度加大,增加退休后期养老金保障风险;提高高龄退休人口养老金调整指数是现实政策解决保障风险的着力点,其实质是提高调整水平,但会加剧养老保险生命周期精算失衡风险;提高最低缴费年限标准难以破解提高保障水平和保持精算平衡的“两难”困境,实施延迟退休年龄政策以及个人账户计发系数、预期寿命与养老金调整指数联动可以实现提高保障水平和保持精算平衡的帕累托改进。

关键词: 预期寿命, 养老金保障风险, 养老金调整指数

Abstract: With the trend of increasingly longer life expectancy, the pension risks rise. Under the constraint of actuarial equilibrium in the life cycle of pension insurance, policy designs largely affect peoples livelihood and consumption in the postepidemic period. The results show that: longer life expectancy will exacerbate decline of the replacement rate of average social wage and increase the risk of pension security in the last years of life. Increasing the pension adjustment index of older retirees is one of the policy options to solve the problem. However, raising the adjustment level will raise the actuarial imbalance risk over the life cycle. It is difficult to solve the dilemma between raising the pension payment and maintaining the actuarial balance by raising the minimum number of years for contributions. Delaying retirement as well as linking the calculation and payment coefficient of individual account, life expectancy, and adjustment index can realize the Pareto improvement of raising the level of security and maintaining the actuarial balance.

Keywords: Life Expectancy, Pension Payment Risk, Pension Adjustment Index