关键词: 生育意愿, 理想子女数, 打算生育子女数, 男孩偏好

Abstract: Based on the data from 2017 national fertility survey, this paper analyzes patterns and determinants of fertility intention in China under the universal two-child policy. The survey suggests that womens average ideal number of children is 1.96 and the average number of intended children is 1.76. For women born in the 1990s and beyond, the number of children they intend to have is 1.70, while for women who have not yet had any children, their intended number of children is 1.60, both are lower than the current average, indicating that there is room for a further decline in the fertility in China. About 9.3 percent of women intend to have three or more children. Among women who have at least two children, the corresponding proportion of women whose first two are girls is 45.6 percent. The regional difference of the intended number of children is more apparent. Sex-selective abortion inhibits fertility intentions and reduces the number of birth, however, in the case of unsatisfactory sex composition of children and tendency to continue to have children, son preference plays a role in strengthening fertility intention and increasing the number of births.

Keywords: Fertility Intention, Idea Number of Children, Intended Number of Children, Son Preference