人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 3-17.

• 建党百年的人口发展与人口理论 •    下一篇

治理转型背景下的中国人口治理格局

胡湛1,彭希哲2   

  1. 胡湛1,复旦大学人口与发展政策研究中心;彭希哲2(通讯作者),复旦发展研究院。
  • 出版日期:2021-07-29 发布日期:2021-08-11
  • 作者简介:胡湛,复旦大学人口与发展政策研究中心教授;彭希哲(通讯作者),复旦发展研究院教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本文为国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国老龄社会的家庭承载力模型及其政策仿真”(71874031)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“积极应对人口老龄化背景下加快养老服务体系建设研究”(20ZDA077)和教育部人文社科基金项目“中国老龄社会的家庭变迁与家庭政策重构”(18YJC840017)的阶段性成果。

China's Population Governance Patterns in the Era of Governance Transformation

Hu Zhan1,Peng Xizhe2   

  1. Hu Zhan1, Center for Population and Development Policy, Fudan University; Peng Xizhe2 (Corresponding Author), Fudan Development Institute.
  • Online:2021-07-29 Published:2021-08-11
  • About author:Hu Zhan is Professor, Center for Population and Development Policy, Fudan University; Peng Xizhe (Corresponding Author) is Professor, Fudan Development Institute.

摘要: 人口治理是国家与社会治理的重要主题和核心领域之一。在中国治理体系转型的过程中,当代中国人口治理理念从强调工具性趋于强化包容性,人口治理结构呈现为“国家理性—家庭自治—社会自主”的三重平衡,这种三元结构是中国人口治理格局的重要特征乃至优势。然而,中国的治理路径仍囿于“以人口适应制度”模式,存在若干治理惯性且治理效能趋于衰减。为回应新时代的治理转型需求并适应其人口变动趋势,亟须重新认识人口与发展的关系,整合“以人口适应制度”和“以制度适应人口”的治理路径,延续已有人口治理结构优势并进一步开发其治理资源,在充分利用新时代发展契机的基础上完善人口治理格局,凝练出新时代人口治理的“中国方案”。

关键词: 人口治理, 人口发展模式, 家庭变迁, 人口老龄化

Abstract: Population governance is among the core themes of national and social governance. During China's contemporary governance transformation, its population governance transforms from “instrumental” to “inclusive” one. The governance tends to achieve a balance among three factors: national rationality, family discretion, and social autonomy. This tripartite model is a critical feature and a strength. Nonetheless, the governance mechanisms in China are confined to the tradition of adapting population changes to institutions. Certain inertia are hard to overcome and the efficacy is diminishing. To respond to the needs of governance transformation in the new era and adapt to the population changes, we need to adjust the understanding of the relationship between population and development, and also integrate two mechanisms—adapting population changes to institutions and adapting institutions to population changes. To maintain the strength of the tripartite model, we shall further establish a “Chinese approach” of population governance on the basis of new development opportunities.

Keywords: Population Governance, Population Development Patterns, Family Changes, Population Ageing