育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏离及家庭生育支持的作用

人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 18-35.

育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏离及家庭生育支持的作用

宋健¹,阿里米热·阿里木²

宋健¹，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院；阿里米热·阿里木²，中国人民大学社会与人口学院。

出版日期:2021-07-29 发布日期:2021-08-11
作者简介:宋健，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院教授；阿里米热·阿里木，中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
本文得到国家社会科学基金重点项目“低生育率背景下育龄家庭的生育机制与生育支持研究”（20ARK005）的资助。

Deviation between Fertility Desire and Fertility Behavior in China and the Effect of Family Support

Song Jian¹,Alimire·Alimu²

Song Jian¹, Center for Population and Development Studies, Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Alimire·Alimu², School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China.

Online:2021-07-29 Published:2021-08-11
About author:Song Jian is Professor, Center for Population and Development Studies, Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Alimire·Alimu is PhD Candidate, School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生育意愿与行为的偏离被视为一个常态化现象，但其偏离程度和家庭生育支持的影响机制尚未取得共识。利用2019年全国人口与家庭动态监测调查数据，通过构造“偏向度”“偏向类型”“无偏层次”等概念，实证分析中国育龄女性生育意愿与行为偏离的现状及家庭生育支持的作用。研究发现，育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏向度平均约为0.14个孩子；生育意愿与行为无偏离的育龄女性在样本中所占比例高达85.45%；超过40%的育龄女性生育意愿与行为符合调查时正在实施的全面两孩政策的数量要求。各类家庭生育支持均有助于显著提升育龄女性生育意愿大于行为的可能性，尤其是有利于生育趋近完成态的育龄女性完成其未满足的生育意愿。建议全面加强家庭生育支持，从而提高育龄女性生育意愿与行为的一致性并降低其处于低意愿水平的可能性。

关键词: 生育意愿与行为的偏离, 偏向度, 偏向类型, 无偏层次, 家庭生育支持

Abstract: No consensus has been reached on the degree of deviation between fertility desire and behavior of childbearingage women and the effect of family support. Based on the data of National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2019, this paper analyzes the deviation and explores the role of family support by constructing the concepts of “deviation degree” “deviation types” and “consistency level”. The results show that the deviation degree is 0.14 children on average, and the women with no deviation account for 85.45 percent in the sample. More than 40 percent of women at childbearing age have fertility desires and behaviors in accordance with the twochild policy requirements implemented at that time. All kinds of family support significantly increase the probability of having higher fertility desire than the behavior and help to fulfill their unsatisfied fertility desire for women aged over 40. Family support should be strengthened from all aspects to improve the consistency of fertility desire and behavior of childbearingage women.

Keywords: Deviation between Fertility Desire and Behavior, Deviation Degree, Deviation Types, Consistency Level, Family Support

宋健, 阿里米热·阿里木. 育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏离及家庭生育支持的作用[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(4): 18-35.

Song Jian, Alimire·Alimu. Deviation between Fertility Desire and Fertility Behavior in China and the Effect of Family Support[J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(4): 18-35.