两种人口负增长的比较：内涵界定、人口学意义和经济影响

人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 14-28.

两种人口负增长的比较：内涵界定、人口学意义和经济影响

陶涛¹,金光照²,郭亚隆³

陶涛¹，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院副教授；金光照²、郭亚隆³，中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。

出版日期:2021-11-29 发布日期:2021-12-13
作者简介:陶涛，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院副教授；金光照、郭亚隆，中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
本研究得到霍英东教育基金会第十七届高等院校青年教师基金项目“中国人口负增长全要素预测与政策应对”（171081）和中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）项目（14XNI003）的支持。

A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth: Connotation, Demographic Characteristics, and Economic Impacts

Tao Tao¹,Jin Guangzhao²,Guo Yalong³

Tao Tao¹ , Center for Population and Development Studies， Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Jin Guangzhao² and Guo Yalong³ , School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China.

Online:2021-11-29 Published:2021-12-13
About author:Tao Tao , Center for Population and Development Studies， Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Jin Guangzhao and Guo Yalong , School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 与以往由外生事件催生的人口负增长不同，受长期低生育率和预期寿命延长驱动的内生性人口负增长将成为未来新的重要人口现象。从人口学意义来看，与外生性人口负增长相比，内生性人口负增长出现之前往往已经积累了较长时间的负增长惯性，而且一旦发生，持续时间较长，并且伴随着人口结构老化，回到正增长域的难度和挑战更大，实现回归后人口正增长的可持续性较低。从经济影响来看，两种人口负增长均存在总量效应，但内生性人口负增长有明确的结构效应和相对稳定的预期效应，并且两者在长波效应上存在差异。未来内生性人口负增长所带来的影响并不都是消极的，也存在积极效应，重点是如何抓住应对窗口期，在消解内生性人口负增长负效应的基础上充分发挥其正效应。

关键词: 内生性人口负增长, 外生性人口负增长, 人口内在自然增长率, 人口老龄化

Abstract: Different from the negative population growth caused by exogenous events in the past, the endogenous negative population growth driven by prolonged life expectancy and long term low fertility will become a new important population phenomenon in the future. Demographically speaking, compared with exogenous negative population growth, the endogenous one tends to accumulate long term negative population growth momentum. Once it happens, it lasts longer, is accompanied by population ageing, and is more difficult to convert back to positive growth. For the economic impacts, both of these two kinds of negative population growth have aggregate effect, but the endogenous negative population growth shows a clearer structural effect, a more stable expectation effect, and a long-swing effect which differs from the exogenous one. The looming endogenous negative population growth is not necessarily negative, but may have positive effects. The focus is how to seize the response window period and give full play to the positive effects on the basis of eliminating the negative effects of negative population growth.

Keywords: Endogenous Negative Population Growth, Exogenous Negative Population Growth, Intrinsic Rate of Population Growth, Population Ageing

陶涛, 金光照, 郭亚隆. 两种人口负增长的比较：内涵界定、人口学意义和经济影响[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(6): 14-28.

Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong. A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth: Connotation, Demographic Characteristics, and Economic Impacts[J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(6): 14-28.