关键词: 理想子女数量, 宏观社会因素, 低生育率陷阱, 教育竞争压力

Abstract: Reflecting collective norms towards childbearing at the societal level, the ideal number of children helps us project a society’s long  term fertility trend. Comparing China and other selected countries, our study shows that the average ideal number of children among women aged 18 to 49 is much lower in China than in other countries. We also observe relatively high one child and low 3 or more children ideals in China. Capitalizing on data from China Family Panel Studies, prefectural yearbooks, and digital map, we examine the effects of contextual factors on the ideal number of children in China. Results show that higher economic development level, higher income inequality level, lower total fertility rate, and higher educational competition level all lead to smaller ideal number of children. A mediation analysis reveals that contextual fertility level and educational pressure are important in shaping Chinese people’s ideal number of children. Our study suggests that fertility attitudes should be understood by taking historical and cultural contexts into account.

Keywords:  Ideal Number of Children, Macro-level Social Factors, Low-fertility Trap, Educational Pressure