人口研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 102-116.

• 老龄问题研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化视角下的技术创新与经济高质量发展

李竞博1,高瑗2   

  1. 李竞博1、高瑗2(通讯作者),首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院讲师。
  • 出版日期:2022-03-29 发布日期:2022-04-15
  • 作者简介:李竞博、高瑗(通讯作者),首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院讲师。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究受国家社会科学基金青年项目“全程视野下人口负增长形态对经济增长影响及应对路径选择研究”(20CRK002)资助

Technological Innovation and Highquality Economic Development from the Perspective of Population Ageing

Li Jingbo1,Gao Yuan2   

  1. Li Jingbo 1and Gao Yuan 2(Corresponding Author), School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business.
  • Online:2022-03-29 Published:2022-04-15
  • About author:Li Jingbo and Gao Yuan (Corresponding Author), School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business.

摘要: 在人口老龄化不可逆转且不断深化的背景下,实现创新型国家的关键在于技术创新。采用中介效应和面板门槛效应模型,验证人口老龄化通过技术创新途径对劳动生产率的影响以及以人口老龄化作为门槛变量,技术创新对劳动生产率的跃迁式影响。结论显示:无论是否束紧经济条件,人口老龄化除了直接影响劳动生产率外,还通过技术创新路径对劳动生产率产生中介影响;在理想条件下,以人口老龄化作为门槛变量,技术创新对劳动生产率的影响为正,当考虑其他控制变量时,技术创新在门槛区间内对劳动生产率的影响为负;在东、中、西部,技术创新对劳动生产率的影响呈现出不同程度的差异,东部的人口转变中,技术创新对劳动生产率的作用符合技术创新对经济发展的作用机制。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 劳动生产率, 技术创新

Abstract: In the context of the irreversible and deepening of population ageing, the focus of the innovative country lies in the technological innovation. This paper uses the mediation model and the panel threshold model to verify the impact of population ageing on labor productivity through technological innovation pathway, and the transitional impact of technological innovation on labor productivity with population ageing as a threshold variable. The findings show that regardless of binding economic conditions, population aging has a mediating effect on labor productivity through technological innovations in addition to directly affecting labor productivity. When population ageing is viewed as a threshold variable, the impact of technological innovations on labor productivity is positive. When control variables are included, the influence of technological innovations on labor productivity becomes negative. The influence of innovations on labor productivity shows varying effects. During the demographic transition of the East area, the effect of technological innovations on labor productivity is in line with the mechanism of technological innovations on economic development.