关键词: 陈卫, 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授；张凤飞, 中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。

Abstract: The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population. Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys, this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020. Marriage delay, which has been taking place across all population groups, has accelerated in the recent decade, but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low. Comparing with the Western countries, China has a different path to postpone marriage. Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China. We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to explain marriage delay in the Chinese context. Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability, feasibility and availability, and marriage delay will continue, but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay, males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single.

Keywords: Marriage Delay, Mean Age at First Marriage, Marriage Patterns, Marriage Transition